This time by holding a draw against the worlds number 2 Fabiano Caruana from USA.

8,5/13

This score is huge at the Candidates tournament. In its current form, it is a new tournament, double rubin, each player against each other with white and black. 8,5 points could be the winners final score. that is how difficult it is. The last half point was hard earned:

Position after 41. Sb5. White sustains presssure on the queen side with the aim of promoting the pawn on A4 on A8. Black has for a long time been mending his position by defense, but has now gained some space on the kingside. His rook on B7 is well placed. The bishop on F7 kan go to E8 and spoil whites play by capturing some of whites pieces. And black has as well a very stromg piece, who now majestically enters the game.

41. -, Kg5

A pawn chain (E2, F3) is to be attacked at its root (E2).

42. Rc5, Kf4

43. a5, Ke3

44. a6, Rb6

45. a7, Ra6 ch

46. Kb4

    
    

    

    Position after 46. Kb4 - Black to move.

    46. -, Be8

47. Rc7, Kxe2

48. Nc3 ch , Kxf3

49. Rxg7, e4

50. Re7, f5

51. Rxe8, Rxa7

Position after 51. -, Rxa7 White cannot save the pawn on H2 due to the threat from the black pawns moving forward towards promotion.

52. Rf8, Rh7

53. Rxf5 ch , Kg2

54. Nxe4, Kxh2

55. Nf6, Rc7

56. Rc5, Rxc5

57. Kxc5 , c3

58. Ng4 ch , draw agreed

The white knight is in time to stop the pawn on C3 by jumping to E3 in the next move. A knight is not enough to produce checkmate therefore the game is a draw. This draw, though, may be sufficient to win the tournament. Caruana is officially out of contention, now. The Dutch grand. master Ainish Giri still has a mathematical chance of catching the leader and goes head to head against Sindarov on Tuesday 14/4 - 2026.

The resilience shown by Sindarov in this game is a sign of maturity. Jerry’s take on the game:

The game of the day commentated on YouTube.

Today Sindarov plays the white pieces against Hikaru Nakamora. Another chance to see the fabulous Uzbek in action. This time against the king of YouTube-chess himself. Here is their last encounter for the first part of the tournament:

Sindarov seems to be unstopable.

Sindarov has a few tough rounds coming up on his way to win the Candidates tournament and thereby the right to challenge the world champion: Gukesh. Is he really as untouched by events as he seems to be? Again today he picked up pace and set out ahead of the field. the win against Praggnanandhaa is a master class in his craft: Steady pushing his opponent out of the board.

When it succeeds it is soothing for the chess lover to watch. Such deep sensitivity spiced up with concrete sound chess calculation. Impressive. Most impressive. His opponent is himself a wiz, only 20 years of age. The youngsters are having it at the World Championship in Chess. Here is a different analytical aproach by Jerry:

One of the old, many time world champion Anand, was a bit disapointed in his young prodigy, and claimed live on TV in the studio with Gustafson and Svidler, that he had analyzed the rook endgame after Be6 many years ago; Sindarov exclaimed at the press conference afterwards, that he left it to feeling around Bg3, indicating that he had left his preparation ten moves earlier, in order to ‘feel the game,’ and the moves flowing. Like a Petrosjan or Larsen. The truly great players, Kasparov, Carlsen, Karpov, adjust their musicality with astute preparation. Sindarov plays the game. Seek instability, strategize, conquer. Chess almost looks easy, when it is conducted like that. He is strong, Sindarov, and so is the image he projects.

In the game against Praggnanandhaa he moves in with the queen and closes down an advantageous position with precision and a sense of practicalities beyond belief. It is beautiful. Mathematically dynamic. Fast. Here is the first meeting between this coming Saturday’s thriller between Fabiano Caruana and Javakir Sindarov. Amageddon. Black can be satisfied with a draw given the tournament situation. Sindarov has 7/9, Caruana has 5/9. It is a must win situation:

In short: The way he took down Caruana in their first head to head in this tournament is staggering. How come everyone makes him do what he does best? Thus asked Levon Aronian on Today in Chess. The field is enchanted by the intuition that governs Sindarovs choices. Constantly seeking to sustain imbalances in the romantic strategism of masters past. Again Tigran Petrosjan comes to one’s imagination. Domination of squares. The chess of staring at E5 until it falls and F6 becomes undermined. I am speaking of chess where good moves flow undisturbed due to superior mastery of strategy amongst strategists in the field. Next is Caruana. The American must win 3,5/4 to get first place. He is always dangerous.

Does Caruana feel free to go for victory with black against the monster? Is there a pinch of fear? Caruana is too clever to make a chimera of Sindarov, and he simply needs to play actively, and take the chance of a chaotic Queens Gambit or perhaps some sort of Indian? Who can stand the pressure in an unbalanced position against Sindarov? His game must be contained. In a Spanish opening.

I believe Sindarov will play d4 again tomorrow. Confident. True to his style. Last year he was much more solid with white, at times a bit cramped. Nowadays he plays sound chess and rides the wave, for sure, but he gets better, all the time. Like Gukesh. That is how he may lose a game or two and yet win the tournament.

Sindarov reminds me of Petrosjan

Petrosjan was called The Iron Tiger. Difficult to beat. Larsen brags about it in his 50 chosen games from 1969. Spassky found the key to imitate and surpass the pressure stemming from the brutal flow of force slowly taking more and more squares away from our pieces.

https://sportstar.thehindu.com/chess/fide-candidates-round-10-results-sindarov-beats-praggnanandhaa-vaishali-divya-deshmukh-chess-report/article70844357.ece

Man mindes naturligt afslutningen på Petrosjan vs. Spassky fra 1966. Petrosjan has made one of his sacrifices, but his pieces have all the quality.

26. Ne4 Kasparov notes in his My Great Predecessors III: ‘A pictoresques position. Black is helpless, despite the fact that he is two exchanges to the good. The knight at a5 is a passive witness to the destruction of its army.’ (Boleslavsky)

26. -, Qh4

27. Nxd6, Qg5 ch

28. Kh1, Raa7

29. Bxf7 ch, Rxf7

White’s last move is left for us to fathom.

30. Qh8 ch , resigns

Total domination. There was no check on G4 and no room for the King to step away from the check. In Danish we call it a ‘family fork’, forking king and queen, here while taking a rook. If 30. -, Kh8 then 31. Nxf7 ch and the queen falls next.

A great game:

https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1106725

Here are my notes from Sunday 1. march - 2026 written by my former student Martin Borgholm.

Pro-regime mourners in Tehran’s Enqelab Square following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death Credit: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA/Shutterstock

Damage report — per 1. marts 2026

ISRAEL AND THE U.S. HAVE BOMBED OVER 1,000 TARGETS IN IRAN, ACCORDING TO WALL STREET JOURNAL

— Iran’s Foreign Minister,ARAGHCHI: BOMBINGS IN TEHRAN HAVE NO IMPACT ON IRAN WAR ABILITY

US President Donald Trump says the military operation against Iran may take up to four weeks.

Iran has raised the ‘Red Flag of Revenge’ over the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom. Signifies a vow to avenge the blood of a marty.

Conclusion: Iran has no incentive to stop pounding Israel, now. Can USA provide them with this incentive? How?

Trump told Iranians to “take the streets and reclaim their government”. So they did, and they are chanting “Death to America and Israel”.

Tehran calculates that the war can only end durably if the cost for the US rises dramatically, including American casualties.

For a ceasefire to be acceptable, it appears difficult for Tehran to agree to it until the cost to the US has become much higher than it currently is. Otherwise, the US will restart the war at a later point, the calculation reads.

Iran understands that many in the American security establishment had been convinced that Iran’s past restraint reflected weakness and an inability or unwillingness to face the US in a direct war. Tehran is now doing everything it can to demonstrate the opposite - despite the massive cost it itself will pay. Ironically, the assassination of Khamenei facilitated this shift.

Iran becomes first country in history to strike 11 countries in under 48 hours.

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

UAE

Cyprus

Oman

Bahrain

https://x.com/Ahmed_hassan_za/status/2028570352696115358?s=20

Iraq

Iran strikes French naval base ‘Camp de la Paix’ in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle has been urgently redirected from the Baltic Sea to the Eastern Mediterranean,

UK PM Starmer says US can use British bases for ‘defensive strikes’. Starmer had previously stopped the US from using British bases to launch strikes on Iran.

Iran dramatically revamped its missile strategy after the June 2025 war. The past 24 hours have shown how:

Immediate retaliation: Instead of waiting days or even hours, the IRGC began reciprocal strikes immediately. Initial US-Israeli attacks: 9:27-9:45 am. Iranian retaliation by 10 am.

Regionwide, multi-front targeting: “Extensive missile and drone” attacks on 27 US bases, from Al Udeid Air Base, CENTCOM’s regional HQ, to Naval Support Activity Bahrain, home to the 5th Fleet, to sites in Jordan and Saudi Arabia where US forces amassed in recent weeks. Multiple waves (20 or more) against Israel, targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, the Golan Heights, etc.

Clockwork launch: Instead of firing swarms of missiles and drones, predominantly at night, Iran has switched to 24-hour continuous launch, designed to physically and psychologically drain enemy defenses and sow shock among US regional allies.

The latter tactics appear to be working. The Arab League has already urged all parties to “work towards de-escalation” and “spare the region the scourge of instability and violence.” Meanwhile, ordinary people in some Gulf nations, like Bahrain, are openly celebrating Iran’s retaliation.

Overwhelming defenses: Footage from multiple locations shows Patriots firing frantically attempting to intercept Iranian projectiles, often failing to do so thanks to Iran’s time-tested strategy of pairing slower missiles designed to keep enemy air defenses busy with hypersonic Fattah-series missiles against priority targets.

Urban strikes: Unlike past counterattacks, where Iranian Israel-facing social media kindly provided civilians with warnings on the city blocks or specific buildings that would be targeted, this phenomenon has not been seen this time around. Given the barbarity of the Israeli-US attack (decapitating Iran’s leadership, killing their family members, targeting a girl’s school, etc.), Iran may be forgiven for not ‘playing nice’ this time around.

Precision urban attacks: Footage from the Gulf shows what looks like the deliberate targeting of certain buildings, like Dubai’s Fairmont The Palm hotel and the Burj Al Arab. Iranian media channels and OSINT sleuths suspect the attacks targeted sheltering US military personnel and/or clandestine CIA sites.

Decentralized execution: The pace and fury of Iranian retaliation shows the IRGC was prepared for exactly the type of scenario that unfolded, with strikes proceeding despite severe blows to Iran’s political and military leadership.

— ANTPS-59 radar in Bahrain is destroyed —

— U. S. AN/FPS-132 (or FP-132) radar at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is destroyed

Lost strategic “Early Warning” capabilities.

Iran’s strategy is clear, degrade US, Arab, and Israeli missile detection, drain air defenses, then launch a massive swarm attack once they’re depleted. These are shaping ops. The big one may not have started yet

Air defences are rapidly depleting in Bahrain. Iran stopped using missiles and is using cheap mass manufactured drones.

IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAY THEY TARGETED U.S. AIRCRAFT CARRIER LINCOLN WITH 4 BALLISTIC MISSILES - STATE MEDIA

Iran has started striking oil rigs

An Iranian Shahed-136 drone targeted an Emirati oil rig in the Persian Gulf

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS IN A STATEMENT: WE HAVE HIT 3 U.S AND UK OIL TANKERS WITH MISSILE IN THE GULF AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ - STATE MEDIA

The US embassies and consulates attacked by mass protestors in Pakistan and Baghdad.

Petrol bombs being thrown at the Israeli embassy in Dehli.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation

Houthis have declared the Bab al-Mandeb Strait closed to U.S. and Israeli ships. In response to Houthi attacks, U.S.-led naval forces (Operation Prosperity Guardian) have directed commercial ships to avoid the strait, leading to widespread route diversions around Cape of Good Hope. Major shipping companies like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Mediterranean Shipping Company have suspended operations through the Red Sea due to security risks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, “Our military units are now, in fact, independent and somewhat isolated, and they are acting based on general instructions given to them in advance.”

“We began by targeting the enemy’s military bases in the region. However, they have evacuated those bases and relocated to hotels. In doing so, enemy commanders are effectively creating human shields for themselves. We have sought to confine our operations strictly to military personnel and facilities that are directly supporting actions against Iran.”

—Iran has warned that US soldiers must lay down their weapons and withdraw from the hotels and facilities they occupy across Gulf countries after evacuating their military bases, or they will be targeted.

Aljazeera: Nine Iranian warships destroyed.

— men flåden er ikke afgørende for at kunne lukke Hormuz

Trump aims to end military operation soon, says commentator Nahum Barnea; US proposed quick ceasefire, Tehran rejected the offer, Ynet reports.

Trump: “We’ll be talking to Iran. We should talk.”

The question “How will this end?” should have ben asked before this war was triggered. It wasn’t.

– Netanyahu says strikes on Iran “will increase even more in the coming days.”

Trump — “Combat operations continue at this time in full force, and they will continue until all of our objectives are achieved.”

Iran drones and missiles are cheap and easy to replace. But missile defense interceptions are expensive and time consuming to build. The math is in the Iranians favour. It’s the same broad cost-exchange problem US encountered fighting the Houthis.The US spent $7 billion bombing Houthis over about 6-7 weeks and failed to degrade Houthis’ ability to attack.

Post- Westphalia — The principle of non-interference in another country’s domestic affairs, and that each state (no matter how large or small) is equal under international law - is being bypassed regularly, if not on a weekly basis.

As European influence spread across the globe, these Westphalian principles, especially the concept of sovereign states, became central to international law and to the prevailing world order. However, the European colonization of Asia and Africa in the 19th century and two global wars in the 20th century dramatically undermined the principles established in Westphalia.

Regime change is not about decapitation or creating a new Delcy Rodrigues.

— Iran built the most layered contingency plan on Earth for this exact moment. Four levels of succession for every key position. Pre-authorized military strikes. Regional commanders who don’t need orders from Tehran to act.

— “you can’t decapitate a system that believes in itself” Scott Ritter — they will never be defeated.

— mass mourning and protests across Iran, Iraq, India, and Pakistan.

— The announcement of Khamenei’s death opened a window for people to pour onto the streets and seek to overthrow the regime. Though expressions of joy were widespread, no real mobilization was seen. That window is now closing, as the theocratic system closes ranks and establishes new formal leadership.

— Iran’s internet has been down for over 24 hours straight.

— This war is more likely to accelerate change in the White House than regime change in Iran. If Trump decisively loses the midterms, he will likely get impeached.

The alternative to the Islamic Republic offered by foreign actors is not liberation—its collapse. A bad government is survivable. No government is not.

Sinking a U.S. aircraft carrier would be the symbolic end of the American superpower era for the Global South.

US attack on Iran could be the end of the US military hegemony

https://x.com/ZacksJerryRig/status/2028343337460322701?s=20

https://x.com/IslanderWORLD/status/2028206432894509168?s=20

AI can translate this if needed.

Cauldron

The Ukrainian armed forces (AFU) have soldiers captured in cauldron, i.e., surrounded on all sides with no route for evacuation. Escape is only possible by trying to run into enemy held territory or across the fields dominated by enemy fire and drone control. Exactly how many soldiers that are trapped in Pokrovsk, we simply do not know. Several thousands for sure. Already in July, the commander begged Kyiv to evacuate. How many have gotten out of the siege, it is not possible to say. At the moment we believe that the loss rate is around 400 a day. Many dessertions, but also many wounded and KIA:

At Kup’yans’k there is a similar situation. This means that AFR is now threatening to encircle the far eastern part of the frontline from Kharkiv to Dniepropetrovsk. The fighting season in 2026 seems to be concentrated on the last major fort to the north of Kostiantynivka, situated around the Kramatorsk/Sloviansk agglomeration. That would mean the end of the battle for Donbas.

Strategic bombing

NATO is desperate and looking for escalation. There is still no appetite on sending in troops to back up AFU and there are no weapons to deploy that can change the course of the war. Kremlin is very irritated by the effect of sanctions and attacks into Russia conducted by NATO weapons with the use of NATO infrastructure, but despite internal pressure from elites in Moscow, the leadership retains their stoic facade:

The contact between Moscow and Washington has been all but terminated and the latest stance of The White House towards Ukraine, with the talk about ‘ceasefire’, a well known non-starter for The Kremlin, has caused AFR to intensify its strategic bombing campaign. In this endeavor, the goal is clearly to insert maximum pressure on Kyiv, by forcing blackouts, with the intention to force mass exodus and increased war fatigue.

Corpses for cash

Kyiv continues to pick men off the streets and send them to die at the front. ‘Corpses for cash,’ I call the strategy: while the elites in Kyiv can still drain the European governments for cash, skimming 10 - 20%, they keep sending more Ukrainian men to die in the attempt to weaken Russia. Clearly, The Russian Federation experience extreme pressure, not least on its economy, but the dream that it would all of a sudden collapse is not coming true. Instead the European elites are now feeling the pressure: From where shall the cash come?

What is going on is clearly cynical: Again at Pokrovsk we see Kyiv prioritizing the chance of scoring propaganda points in the Western press over the well being of its own soldiers and thus AFUs ability to defend itself vis a vis AFR. The fundamental question remains: Why? Cut Bono? Classic politocology gives the answer: Those with ressources and interests can make their dependencies do their bidding.

Robbers in the castle

The armed forces of the Russian Federation (AFR) have entered Pokrovsk from the south. For about a week, the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) have been shifting focus constantly finding new entries of AFR to address. This situation leads to confusion due to lack of overview. I call this situation ‘robbers in the castle:’ the outer defences are breached and you practically do not know where the enemy turns up next:

Now AFR is inside the town, ready to cross the railway in different places, leaving AFU without a sense of orientation as the remaining soldiers seek to find viable positions in the center of Pokrovsk. After a year of siege, they are exhausted. Many have tried to escape through the fields in the corridor to the northwest under relentless fire from the enemy:

Retreat and Advance

The three phases of attritional warfare are 1) Stalemate, where the parties are grinding at each other along a steady line of contact; 2) retreat where one party is giving up positions while seeking to minimize loses; 3) collapse, the third and final phase where the frontline dissolves. Note that the intuition most western media outlets are presenting is ‘stalemate due to the attacker not taking territory.’ This is a falsum. People with a little knowledge about warfare know how it goes. We arre now entering the second phase: While AFU lose positions they take up worse positions, which tends to speed up attrition leading towards collapse. In the video, Weeb Union depicts 5 different places where AFR are gaining strategic positions, i.e. positions from where they can advance further. Pokrovsk, being a major logistics hub, is the paradigm of this dynamic hence the loss of Pokrovsk will lend AFU a reason to capitulate. Note that AFR advances slowly in concordance with their enormous logistics apparatus, feeding the idea presented in the western media, that there is a stalemate, but really, this is the way AFR preserves its soldiers and keep them properly supplied and content.

Strategic calculus

Moscow possesses escalation dominance over NATO. Furthermore, as long as Kremlin keeps absorbing attacks by NATO without retaliating at the source of the attack, for instance, the command center at Wiesbaden in Germany, they both adapt to our weapons and retain control of escalations.

Caution

Note that the term ‘control of escalations’ is somewhat illusory in a tense conflict, since the Kremlin will come under pressure from the Moscow elites, should NATO ever hit something of importance inside Russia, and that could lead to Moscow stepping up the escalation ladder, probably with unhinged escalation following...... The situation on the battlefield is desperate and so is the atmosphere in Kyiv and the European capitals.

Evaluation

Since there is no effect on the outcome of the war to be gained, deploying missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in direct attack on The Russian Federation appears to be ‘all risk, no result’ for NATO. We are running out of weapons to deploy. The enemy now knows our arsenal well and have adapted to it. After Tomahawks, there is very little we would be willing to expose to the enemy hence in case of tomahawk missiles, this is the last threat, we have and the enemy knows that.

Perspective

A combination of S-300, MIG31 and possibly Su-57 for monitoring, should be able to deal effectively with Tomahawks. Moscow is very negative towards the effects of medium range missiles deployed by NATO in Ukraine hence the atmosphere is intense. Usually, it takes AFR 2 months to adapt to new systems introduced through AFU. Kyiv is running out of men, and will get a worse outcome, the longer they will fight: Capitulation is the strategic option. The two main parties in the conflict, Washington and Moscow will have to settle this, and introducing an escalation now, would only postpone such settlement.

Further reading

Introduction to the conflict from a geopolitical perspective: https://klauskondrupgeopol.substack.com/p/the-ukraine-question

First of all, if you do not think the West is desperate, then you may already be in paralysis. I get to that point latter. Secondly, before we get to the how, let’s clear out the what: Desperation is a state where you see no way out hence you actions may rely on sudden impulse which could be fatal. From our definition, you can see how paralysis can be the preferred state, but it all depends on the situation, since being desperate, can also get you the optimal outcome, if you are lucky, while being paralyzed or apathetically unaware is the sure recipe for disaster.

When we are shaken by a new situation arising, like the Russian invasion of Ukraine or the Hamas attack out of Gaza, we enter the de-factualization phase. This is the first phase leading towards desperation. It runs as follows: discarding facts to feed our narrative of good battling evil.

Eventually, we settle on a narrative and decide on, what we believe to be the facts about what is happening. We need that to appease out mind and sustain orientation. Some cut off and stop caring. Others hold on to their beliefs. Unless you are extremely lucky or skillful in being very meticulous about constructing your facts. With the Ukraine war, most people got the idea that Russians are evil and that they kill civilians, since everyday for many months, that is what was repeated on TV. When your mind is set, complexities are reduced and you can make sense of what you experience and start wondering: ‘Why do they kill children?’

On Danish radio the news each our said: ‘Russian unprovoked attack on a sovereign country. Today these civilians were killed, there.’ Lots of emotions and points of identification. War is horrible. Nothing about the conflict. Only that evil is to blame. What was said about why it had erupted and how it could be solved, was only repetition of old narratives about the innocent Ukrainians and the evil Putin, who wants to conquer the world. After half a year of that, my countrymen where under severe illusions.

When the illusions take hold, reason falls short. That is the second phase. I call it the delusional phase. People who hardly know anything about international politics, Ukraine, Russia or NATO, try frantically to convince me, that what I have said in my lectures on the topic since 2009 is Russian propaganda coming out of my mouth, because I am easily susceptible to strange beliefs and do not concur with the newspaperstory. They are delusional and would have gotten an F- on the topic of Ukrainian geopolitics. I say to them: ‘What does Moscow want? To grasp the conflict, you must understand the interests of the parties.’ ‘You are a Russian asset,’ they answer. Delusion is not only to be under an illusion, but as well to be so absorbed by it, that it becomes an identity issue for you to convince others of the same. It is borderline type behavior. A mild form, but if you ever encountered a person with severe personality disorder, you may know about the forces at play. They are quite strong.

We are talking about manipulation. Not that there are evil men sitting in a dark room making us all believe in the propaganda, but rather, that propaganda works by people making decisions at work, to formulate something in accordance with their own belief thus sorting the facts and strengthenening a narrative that makes sense to them. The delusional phase does not leave its grip on us unless dispelled, but keeps feeding on its own productions and the conflict encountered, when reality does not match with the narrative.

When the ability to discard facts that does not fit our narrative gets exhausted, frustration arrives. Anger becomes the consequence. Towards the Russians, yes, but also towards our inability to act functionally, changing the outcome that we fear; our anger is constantly fueled, since the world does not correspond to our ideas about it. My people wanted eskalation to teach the Russians a lesson, but the Russians already seemed unable to learn from us. Rather they were bucked down in reality, having to learn how to fight the war they had gotten themselves into and the better they got at it, the more frustrated we became, and the more frustration turned into anger. And that is where we entered the third phase.

I remember my prime minister advocating that now we should start shooting missiles into Russia. That was when I started my public campaign for reflexivity and debate. My countrymen thought it was a good idea to attack Russia. How that could influence the outcome on the battlefield was totally unclear, but we in Denmark believed it was the right thing to do: ‘The Russians are weak; they do not dare to shoot at us. Soon they will collapse!’ For a moment we forgot the propaganda line: ‘The Russians are strong and will soon come to take us all.’ Now we were secure and actionable.

The battlecry: ‘Russians are evil; evil must be slain,’ overshadowed the cognitive dissonance between the strong Russia all of a sudden being weak, and although a week later, we returned to the idea that the Russian will soon come to take us, we kept finding resolve in shooting at Russia. Experts on tv informed us that it was the Ukrainians that fired the missiles into Russia, not us, and therefore we had the moral high ground, if the Russians were to shoot back. It was a blunt lie; NATO operates missiles that shoot into Russia. Had the experts had competencies in their field, they would have known that. And the moral high ground is useless, if the enemy does not show restraint. ‘They are weak; they do not dare retaliate. We are strong. Long live Ukraine.’ Denmark has fought a hundred wars. Always the same. A good battlecry and then off to death and destruction.

As long as we are afraid, we can keep up the cognitive dissonance, but all our actions are impulsive and high risk. ‘Let’s fire Tomahawks at them; that will teach them a lesson!’ Again: What that should do to alter the situation is quite unclear, but it is high risk. In the desperation phase, the risk can itself be the source of temptation. It makes us feel able and alive. Defactualized, delusional, and desperate, we are groping for measures to sustain our illusions, postponing reality to enter our ray of vision, seeking to lash out in every action, shouting: ‘We must meet their escalation; we are strong!’

Lately, Kyiv is desperate for dragging NATO directly into the conflict by conducting psy-ops, flying drones into Poland, aided by their closest friends in Estonia, Denmark and Norway, searching for a way to tricker article 4 & 5 in the NATO pact.

Truth is that we would not be prepared for an escalation. If we really hit something inside Russia that hurt them, then the Kremlin would come under overwhelming pressure to retaliate, and if they send an advanced hypersonic missile like Oreshnik, to hit the command center, directing missiles at them, i.e., Wiesbaden in Germany, then we would have severe difficulties retaining our composure, and that could steer the situation straight south for this world.

But being delusional, we do not have a grasp on things, neither of reality, nor of ourselves: We believe that we are the ones against whom there cannot be retaliated. The exception in the history of civilization. When the rest refuse to obey, we are instantly in a state of shock. Like Washington, yesterday, when the Chinese informed them that they will cap rare earth exports, if their leader did not fall in line and acted rationally, during trade negotiations. It would take USA 5 - 10 years to restore supply from a different source. Rare earths may not be rare, but they are very difficult to sort into useful lumps. The Chinaman has got the know how on this one, mister. You gotta face up to this fact. We may imagine ourselves beyond the practicalities of the mundane, but before we dispel our illusions, we will remain dysfunctional.

The West still lives in a world of yesterday, where we just bombed the hell out of everybody if they did not comply to our rules. But even when we made the rules and changed them at will we lost. Remember? It is not the world, or the rules or the laws of physics that is the issue; it is us. We are dysfunctional. As long as we lash out without any objective, decreasing security, taking greater and greater risk, we remain dysfunctional, feeding our delusions, until we run out of options for digging ourselves deeper into the endless maze of actionability and delusion, ending up in paralysis, from where our demise is only a matter of time.

Decisive battle

We are close to a year into the siege of Pokrovsk and the battle is already a few months old. The armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) has blocked the armed forces of the Russian Federation (AFR) in the south of the Pokrovsk and delivered attacks on the pocket formed after the AFR broke through to the bottom of AFU defences, to the northeast of Pokrovsk:

This battle has been denoted decisive by many, since AFU are deploying a substantial amount of the battle hardened troops they have left. It still rages on, but calls to mind the battle of Bakhmut, where AFU establishes a blockade while losing force to feed the rest of the frontline. The AFUs victorious battles have been very expensive and that has led to the outcome of this war. Pokrovsk appear in operational encirclement with the corridor to the northwest of the fortress all but cut of from support.

No electricity

Where most observers predicted the war to last more than seven years, when it began, today, most talk about Rasputitsa autumn 2026 as the date where AFU is finally out of men, and have lost the east of Ukraine. AFU air defences are sparse. The detente on critical infrastructure attacks is over. Since Washington finally flipped, a few weeks ago, Moscow has pounded with daily dose of around 800 airborne vehicles a day. Drones and missiles rain over Ukraine:

Ukraine is warm in summertime, but soon temperatures will sore and the need for electricity to heat houses will rise. There is renewed migration westward from the north of Ukraine; as we approach winter the risk of a new stream of refugees seeking north towards Poland will increase.

Lack of qualified infantry

While elite forces are deployed in Donbas, the southern part of the front lacks defensive capabilities. The slow grinding mode of AFR pushes through in direction Zaporizhzha city. AFR operations unfold with patience and dare, often relying on trial and error, seeking out opportunities:

If AFR is able to take Lyman, then it will be the third time the town is taken in this war. With each logistics hub falling, AFU loses defensive strength while AFR gains offensive strength. The determining factor, though, is that with each battle, AFR gains battle hardened troops while AFU loses battle hardened troops. In a war of attrition, that is the bottom line. Western media is still talking about finances and planning of production capabilities, showing maps with battles added calculations concerning loss and gain of territory. Operationally, the focus for the observer must be on encirclement and logistics. But in the end, the hard facts is how many able men die.

Wack a mole

The last couple of years, I have advised the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) to take positions on the western side of the river or capitulate. As time goes by, both options become more and more expensive in military and political terms of losing men and land. Now, the initiative is in Moscows hands. Kyiv is purely reactive: When the army leadership decides to move troops towards a given sector of the battlefield in order to stop the armed forces of the Russian federation (AFR) from conquering strategic positions, the problem immediately pops up another place along the frontline.

Northeastern breakthrough sustained

Since mid August, 2025, AFU has placed pressure on the small breakthrough northeast of Pokrovsk, hammering AFR, causing substantial loses on both sides. In public relations terms, the operation has been a success. Many of the die hard supporters of Kyiv have been able to place their hopes and nourish them by focusing on this, arguably, prominent part of the frontline. Now, the effort has been met by AFR deploying their 5th army to the sector. This may turn the tables in the battle for Pokrovsk as AFU is now set to defend against attacks in the direction of Dobropillia to sustain the corridor to the northwest of Pokrovsk:

The strategic bombing of supplies and production of weaponry gets more and more detailed.

A hopeless situation

Attritional warfare is nasty business. Focus is on keeping the enemy from guerilla tactics and grind down its forces. This is meticulously done by AFR aided by the apparent affinity in Kyiv for employing a strategy that keeps hopes up in the western audiences, rather than what is more effective from a strategic consideration. One cannot help but think, that the elite in Kyiv and their children are safe and sound for many generations to come while the life of ordinary people are being ruined; however we look at it and however we construct the meaning of it all, facts are, that what is missing from the coffers of the state can buy loads of property abroad and the loss of Ukrainian life exceeds half a million men: in my account the losses of AFU are 1,4 million dead, wounded, deserted, missing, and captured. What we see happening on the battlefield is an army short of reserves, seeking desperately to plug the holes; unsuccessfully, and with no end in sight but disaster.

Hole in the front closed

1st Azov army core of the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) was deployed northeast of Pokrovsk and succeeded in closing the breakthrough to the last defence line, that was obtained by the armed force of russian Federation (AFR) in late July. Throughout this operation AFU showed skill and competence second to none.

As mentioned by Marc Takacs, these elite unit operations displays strong leadership, adequate planning, and succesful execution, and are in sharp contrast to the performance of the large bulk of AFU forces along the porous and in places directly chaotic frontline.

Fortified positions fall

One by one, AFR eats through the fortifications in the western Donetsk; AFU manages to organize counterattacks with some efficacy as well as some substantial loses: That is the modus vivendi of the Ukraine war. It is difficult to see what the alternative is for AFU. They do slow down AFR, and do manage at times to hit hard. But the lack of manpower means that the end approaches, slowly but surely.

At Pokrovsk AFU stalls AFR in the southwest and northeast, preventing AFR from penetrating deeper towards the center. 79th assault regiment has payed heavily and is expected to be re-organized. 82nd airborne, although diminished, is still able to maintain status as a capable unit. This is the reality of attrition.

A new Army?

The restructuring of AFU is ongoing since independence of Ukraine 24th august 1991. Chain of command, centralization and autonomy were elements of organization sought balanced to achieve the strongest possible fighting force, able to attack separatists and later to sustain territory in the face of AFR invading forces.

The formation of army cores is the latest development of AFU. In the face of severe logistic difficulties and a porous frontline, larger rapidly deployable autonomous units seem to be an obvious solution. 1st Azov functions well. They obviously believe in themselves. But can such re-organization of AFU succeed with such manpower shortages? Is there an alternative? To the observer, AFU possesses around 10 to 12 functional operational entities, currently delivering brave and effective counterattacks, these brigade clusters could form the base for the formation of army cores. But, but, but. We are talking about an enormously long frontline to be covered during reformation. Kup’yans’k is gasping for air and Pokrovsk is withstanding a substantial pressure. The amount of AFU battle hardened troops approaches 100.000 in my estimate. Troop to space ration does not add up. Recruitment is very slow. Training often non-existent. Is this attempt to re-collect forces nothing but a pipedream?

On Monday 12th of August The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFR) broke through to the last defensive line, northeast of Pokrovsk. Scouts managed to establish themselves deep into the terrain and soon the breakthrough was constituted east of Dobropilla:

The terrain behind the last defensive line is open with no natural or cultural barriers (industrial constructions) hence it is nearly impossible to build lasting defensive structures there. On Wednesday, Kyiv managed to send their last deployable elite units to establish counter pressure, while AFR increases the pressure throughout the theatre. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), staying true to its modus vivendi, will seek out weaknesses in the AFR positions and counterattack to the best of their ability. The situation is difficult, though. To quote leutenant colonel Bohdan Krotevych from Azov:

"Mr. President, I sincerely don’t know what exactly is being reported to you, but I’m informing you: on the Pokrovsk – Kostiantynivka line, without exaggeration, it’s complete chaos. And this chaos has been growing for a long time, worsening with each passing day... A stable line of combat contact, as such, effectively doesn’t exist."

The following days we expect AFR to secure their positions to the northeast of Pokrovsk while attacking to the north towards the Pavlohrad highway from their positions west of the fortress.

1200 civilians are trapped alongside the soldiers with only two roads available for evacuation. After 9 months of siege attempting an escape through the northwestern corridor is extremely risky, but in a few weeks it will be nearly impossible to get through.

Logistics is everything

You may know it from chess; one has to move the pawns before one can use the bishops, rooks, and queen. War is about getting troops and weapons optimally positioned. Food and ammunition are in constant demand at the front. Rotations. Materiel must be moved from A to B. When AFR took Selydove, they gained an important hub from where it can feed into the battle and hide their drone operators: the last 10 months AFR has slowly but surely laid siege to Pokrovsk. Now they are expanding the operational encirclement and creating a pocket. The roads to Pokrovsk are being cut.

Propaganda logic reigns

Rumor has it, that the AFU commanders in Pokrovsk filed for withdrawal last week. True to habit, Kyiv refused, and ordered a last stand, although the situation was dire and the Russian scouts were already inside the center of the town. 8th of August seems to have been an important political deadline for the Ukraine government. It is the same every time: Kyiv does not want to look weak in the eyes of Washington and Bruxelles hence for propaganda reasons, the government orders the troops to cling on to a lost fortress instead of following the military logic and pull out in time before losses become catastrophic. Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vulidar, Kursk; the examples are many. At the moment the entire frontline is perforated by AFR: the strategy of keeping AFU close and use superior firepower to attrit its forces has succeeded.

No viable prospect for AFU

Pokrovsk is the great prize. Like in chess, a breakthrough in the center is decisive. From there AFR can distribute its forces west into Dniepropetrovsk, north towards Kharkiv, and northeast towards the rear of the Kramatorsk/Sivirsk line in Donetsk. It is over. The Russian commanders are confident and speak about months before the AFU is defeated. Within a year, Kyiv is forced to reorganize and dig into positions along the Dnipro river in an attempt to sustain a frozen conflict. Facing the constant rain of missiles there is no future for Ukraine. Capitulation is being postponed till the last moment by the government in Kyiv. And for what? For nothing but politics and the ability to squeeze out the last lumps of subsidy from their donors. The political analysis is intuitive. Washington is delusional. For 24 months, this development has been all but inevitable. It is a tragedy. For Ukraine, for Russia, for Europe, for the world.

Here follows my list of considerations in grasping Iran’s calculus concerning gaining a nuclear weapons option.

a) deterrence: Is there a situation where Iran would use a nuclear weapon against Israel? If Teheran is struck by a nuclear weapon by Israel it would have a nuclear weapon for retaliation. But can a nuclear weapon deter a conventional attack? Look at Israel and Russia. They have both been attacked by barrages of missiles lately, but would they retaliate by using a nuclear weapon? They did not, and there are effective norms regarding the use of nuclear weapons and logical consequences to be observed: If Iran uses a nuclear weapon against Israel they are facing the possibility of getting 40 in return: Would Iran, considering itself a bearer of civilization, let itself be blown of the map by attacking Israel, that it considers an evil death cult? Can Israel use its nuclear weapon as a deterrent? Under what circumstances. See the question of the Samson option and the reaction from Islamabad on Israels attack on Iran: and the circumstances around the exchange between Teheran and Jerusalem/Tel Aviv. Deterrence is not an easily deployable concept, here.

b) proliferation: If Teheran tests a nuclear weapon as a deterrent, then Islamabad will make sure that Riyadh and Ankara develop a nuclear weapon creating the need in Cairo. The reality of this chain reaction must be discussed in detail, but this is an often mentioned possible consequence. The geopolitical landscape of Westasia and beyond its edges must be considered when we discuss the expediency of nuclear weapons programs. As long as Teheran retains the possibility of making a nuclear weapon, but does not actually complete the task clandestinely or by making a 'public' test, some strategic ambiguity is retained. The danger is of course, that Israel and the superpower will use the nuclear weapons program as an excuse (although Israel is not even a signatory to NPT!!) to sanction and perhaps even attack, but it is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation: If you do not have nuclear weapon, then the superpower will destroy your country at will, if you seek a nuclear weapon, then the superpower will attack you (or one of its vassals will).

c) social concerns: Teheran has moved closer to Beijing and Moscow as of late; these new friends of Iran are kept at an arms length, but necessities of security are moving them even closer drawing Iran further away from the West (illustrative is the change from GPS to the Chinese BeiDou system): Teheran has shown that it needs Beijing after the events in June, and the question is for how long it is sensible to keep its distance to Moscow. Self reliance is a fundamental of the islamic revolution, but Teheran has always understood to walk the tightrope of autonomy and security. Neither Beijing nor Moscow are keen on Teheran going nuclear beyond civilian use. Damaging these newly founded relations (SCO, BRICS) is a concern in the riddle whether or not to get an a-bomb.

d) international legal sovereignty: It has been beneficial to Teheran to act within the global legalistic frameworks. Recent events has made it clear that in the future the pros will be outweighed by the cons. In general, the smaller players in the global political order will gain security by playing by and address issues by means of international law. Facing a superpower who seems to disregard both spirit and letter of law should make Teheran reconsider and shotting out IAEA is first step in this deliberation.

That is my list of considerations for addressing this issue. What did I miss? Leave a comment bellow.

In the administrative disciplines, we say that there are things we know that we know, and things we know, that we do not know. We then need to decide whether we need to know, should know or do not need to know. Decisions are the fabric of the trade. We need to decide whether to find out, how to get to know, if we need to.

There are things that we do not know that we do not know. At times they will surprise us, when they suddenly and unexpectedly interfere. But there are also things we know, that we do not take properly into consideration when we decide. These are called ‘the unknown knowns;’ things we know, and later find out that we knew, but somehow left out of sight at a crucial point in time.

Israel knew that Iran had missiles that could penetrate their air defences. That became clear in October 2024. They did not know about how many missiles Iran possesses. Not even Pentagon has a precise figure. But they did have a clue.

Therefore the arrival of Khorramshahr, the Iranian modified, North Korean version of NATO classification SS - N - 6, nicknamed ‘The Serb’, may be devastating to those who are struck by it, but that it comes as a surprise to the Israeli Defence Forces, that these missiles exist and that they are in Teherans possession, is not due to incompetence on their part. Somewhere in the administration, something went wrong.

This post contains the summation of analysis by answering two questions:

• What is ‘regime change’?

• Can Israel succeed?

A short reminder

Bombing a nuclear programme out of existence is a pibe dream. This operation is about ‘regime change’ as its aim is often called, another illusion. You can destroy political institutions, but it will take generations to build new ones, simply because building political institutions is about passing norms from one generation to the next. That is state-building for beginners. The idea is often nourished by the chimera, that we can build a nation-state once the regime is destroyed. Imposing the dynamic of nation-building on a society is another illusion. Political institutionalization may facilitate a national political identity and sustain it, like we saw in Europe throughout the 19th century, but the emergence of a nation takes decades if not centuries of political institutionalization: an army is a good start for forging a political identity, but scores of institutions must work in concert for a long time for a nation to be forged: schools for indoctrination into national history, museums for sustaining the emotional belonging, epics about heroic deeds must be written, and broadcasting institutions must be created and operated to the effect of political homogenization, etc. The propaganda of ‘regime-change’ is all nonsense.

A word of caution

This just to give you the idea of what is going on. The attack on Iran is about regime destruction. According to my method of measuring societal stability (polity volatility index), Iran (2024) is 75 . That is code orange (60-80): a police state (technical term) with severe political infrastructural issues, leaving the police function on maximal alert for the social order to remain stable; when the police state breaks down, society is left in military rule (garrison state). To push it into a garrison state (code red: 80 - 100) like entity is only 5 points away in the case of Iran. But to leave it in anarchy (code purple: 100+) like Syria, Libya, and Irak, will take a huge effort, levelling cities that has been there thousands of years before Amerigo was born. One may think that this is progress or regrettable; that is not my concern. This indicates that the current regime could survive in its current form, being able to develop society further, if it sustains its reign through the current crisis without falling into code red.

Focus

Here I will focus on the policy aims, their consequences, and what we know about what happened. Destruction of the Iranian regime will leave West Asia north of the Persian Gulf in turmoil. Whether that is good or bad, or whatever, is not the topic for geopolitical analysis. Does it describe the situation in analytical terms or not, that is criterion.

Iran

Iranian society is not exactly stable; USA is code yellow (40-60), Germany is code green (20-40), and Denmark is code blue (0-20). Orange, especially this close to code red as ‘75’ indicates, can easily turn into code red, from where polities do not escape; once a garrison state, i.e., the police is corrupted and the social order is kept coherent by the strength of the army only, society cannot return to orange by its own means. From there on, tragically, the only way out is anarchy (government breakdown) and reconstruction (code purple = 100+). Here it is important to understand, that even though the politcal infrastructure is challenged, i.e., that many people are not subjected to society, state, and government, attack from the outside spurs a sentiment, that rallies many dissidents to defence of the state and its institutions in Iran. Symbolically the red flag in Jamkaran (Qom) was raised on Friday 13th 2025, following the Israeli attack: The Iranians are called to rally around revenge; not necessarily the love of government, but it implies a momentary dynamic of societal cohesion at work. The political elite in Teheran is relatively cohesive, therefore a serious attempt of regime destruction must attack the regime from the inside of the capital, fast, swift, and with high precision (se Edward Luttwark: Coup d’état, 1968), quickly replacing the leader while securing public legitimacy. The current Mossad led operation is losing steam and is running out of time. Planing has probably lasted a year, and surely US secret bases in Iraq, as well as MI6 networks have been used for logistics.

Chances of regime survival

The regime in Teheran is under pressure. No doubt. Since its inception, Sayeed Ali Khamenei has been in charge of the security cabinet (expediency council); Iraq, backed by the Soviet Union and United States of America, launched a war of attrition on the regime even before it could consolidate after the revolution in 1979. After the death of Khomeini in 1989, Khamenei became supreme leader. Sanctions imposed on Iran by UN and especially western governments, has tormented the regime and its population throughout its existence. The US loss of authority on the global stage over the last decade, has lately led to Moscow and Beijing taking interest in regime preservation in Teheran. As the attackers clandestine operators managed to disturb and bypass the advanced Iranian air defences, distribution of weapons and explosives to sleeper cells was giving momentum towards creating a rise of dissident moments. Teheran retaliated by shooting missiles at Israel. After 5 days, the regime in Teheran has levelled the military battle by deployment of special police forces in its major cities, while constantly hitting bases and critical infrastructure inside Israel. The israeli polity is also code orange (61), and with the latest development it is moving rapidly towards increasing instability (61<x). If Israel gets into trouble, the USA will step in. Teheran’s political elites are apparently still coherent (75).

The Superpower on the verge of war

If USA engages beyond its usual intelligence, logistic support and military assistance to Israel, then Teheran will be overmatched and destroyed; if not, we have a different situation: Then survival depends on attrition, i.e. if Teheran does not run out of missiles that can hit Israel, then Tel Aviv will have to change its posture. Ultimately, the success of the superpower will depend on its ability to bomb Teheran into submission like Beograd 1999. Here the resilience of shia jihadism prevalent among the Iranian security forces, may be a decisive factor. USA has the exit option to bomb the nuclear facilities at Fordow to smithereens by using large volume explosives, but compared to Top Gun II type strike, in reality, this may be very difficult. If the regime in Teheran survives one must realize, that by now, the hawks have it inside the Iranian regime: its incentive to build a nuclear weapon rose tremendously this month, but since they cannot really use it, the supreme leader may continue to hesitate in seeking a nuclear option. At some point, of course, when Iran has lost its other options, the rational thing to do would be to show the capacity to use nuclear weapons. But until now, Teheran has not left The treaty on Non-Proliferation (NPT), yet, although the order to proceed with pursuing an a-bomb, may already be in effect: the hallmark of Khamenei is expediency. More to follow on this in a coming post.

Videos used for reference and illustration of points

Disclaimer: No emotional inclinations and moralistic statements expressed by the analysts interviewed in the attached videos are shared by this author.

Scott Ritter is a former weapons inspector with extensive insight into the workings of military intelligence concerning weaponry.

Brian Berletic is an independent journalist, who is thoroughly and frantically investigating what he understands to be US Empire.

Mikael Valtersson is an independent swedish political and military analyst.

Michael Maloof is a former senior analyst at the Pentagon, specialized in Israel security policy.

Theodore Postol is Professor of Science, Technology and National Security Policy at MIT.

Pushback

AFU is under enormous pressure along the frontline stretching from the tip of Bryansk, at the border between Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine to the river dividing the parties at Kherson. Kyivs forces are threatened by envelopment from Pokrovsk to Kupyansk while missiles and drones are raining down on the pocket and far into the western part of the waitron country. The new aims being set by Moscow includes preparing power projection into Mykolaiv and Odessa, commencing with operations into Dniepropetrovsk and Sumy:

Collapse

The metaphor is often used. It describes an ongoing movement where the structures of a thing are eroding, causing it to become ‘collapsed’. For instance the sun is collapsing hydrogen that will eventually become helium before it collapses completely into an expansion of matter. A societal collapse is much faster than that of the sun, but now it has reached the state of political de-stabilization. We are now only a year away from AFU running out of battle able troops: ressources are in rapid depletion while the regime is hanging on with its nails:

Around Pokrovsk

As foreseen, Pokrovsk became the new epicenter of the conflict. AFU is fighting bravely and ingeniously for their fortress, but once in the hands of AFR, Pokrovsk will work as a distribution hub, that can underpin operations outflanking the AFU fortifications in the east and south. War is basically logistics and positioning. that is why chess is such a helpfull abstraction. The hights at Chassiv Yar have been taken and the rest of the town is expected to be falling within weeks creating renewed pressure:

Dissaster is immanent. It is only a matter of time before AFR breaks through the defensive lines at Pokrovsk, and the rear lies open. The world will then soon turn its attention towards the next war in line for the struggling thalassocracy. Here, I will keep you updated on this, that, and other events, focusing on the big picture.

The last few months coverage in the mainstream media, has been about the circus of cease fire, propaganda victories and over-personification of serious conflicts, spinning the perspective totally out of proportion, mocking reality and its catastrophic consequence. Moscow, having the upper hand, was not interested in cease fire, and therefore it was all an illusion, hence I did not spend much time on it, since all the talking was merely a deviation from reality. Kyiv is not ready to capitulate. That is what matters in The Ukraine War.

Fighting season commences

This weekend, the window closed for Kyiv to capitulate this time around. Now the Ukraine war enters into a new phase of conflict. The pressure on the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) is increasing and will continue to increase until the end of this fighting season around Rasputitsa, Autumn, 2025. Around 800.000 security forces with approximately 150.000 combat hardened soldiers are facing 560.000 well-rotated and well-equipped servicemen from the armed forces of Russia (AFR) deployed into Ukraine enjoying superior firepower. The frontline is cracking. Pincers closing everywhere.

Kyiv under pressure

Talks were sought held between the parties in the spring of 2025. Kyiv and Washington were not able to subject to the demands from The Kremlin. Now, dialogue is all but suspended and next time, it is unlikely that Moscow will be able to restrain themselves from taking more oblasts. The Hawks speak about a security zone around Sebastopol and Moscow of 600 kilometers. Mikolaiv, Odessa, Dniepropetrovsk all have sufficient ethnically Russian-minded populous to be annexed by The Russian Federation. How deep the buffer will become in the north is anybody’s guess. You do the math. Kyiv is totally desperate.

Political season over

The first half of 2025 has contained a lot of political circus. As you, my dear reader, was informed, there was not going to be a 30-day ceasefire or anything The Kremlin did not want. In geopolitics, the stronger part in a war sets the terms. Now Kyiv has let the chance to give up pass. Now they face utter destruction. Washington, nor Brussels can do much about it. Whatever spectacular stunts MI6 can come up with, it will perhaps be efficient at keeping the western propagandamachine nicely greased and spinning, but in practical terms, even their success spell disaster for Ukraine.

The first half of the tournament was not very good for the world champion. But then again, also not too bad. After two loses he managed to get a win. As mentioned, his attitude towards playing the very top is humble, but still strategic. He has come to play chess, i.e. see what happens, feel the pressure and then do, what he does best: Find the best move in the position.

In round 6 he got outplayed by Magnus Carlsen:

Position after 15. Ng3

Classical Roy Lopez. It looks like Gukesh has managed to maneuver his pieces to optimal squares, Karpov style, but from here on Carlsen rolls over the young man with his strategic overview: 15. -, cxd4 16. cxd4, bxa4 17. Bxa4, Bb7 18. d5, a5 19. Be3, Bc8! Nowadays ! indicates that the computer evaluates a move to be the only move to sustain status quo. This idea comes from a fault finding culture. Here ! means a good move. the light squared bishop needed to find a diagonal. With this move it activates the rook and black captures the initiative.

Position after 22. - Rb4

White sustains pressure on the pawn on E4. The idea Bxh3 is lurking in the background. From here on, Gukesh plays a few inaccurate moves with his queen, simply because he does not grasp what is going on. Carlsen realizes the potential of the position and ends up with a wining position:

Position after 32. Nf3

The rook on A7 and the bishop on C6 are both off side doing nothing. But from here, the world champion starts making the best moves in the position. Normally, this cannot be saved against Carlsen. Of course. 32. -, hxg3 33. fxg3, Nxh3 34. gxh3, Bxe4 Soon the pawn on D5 will fall and the two pawns march down the board.

Come back kid

Position after 52. -, Ne2 ch ??

Carlsen blunders!! In an interview before the 7th round, the world number one talked about his lack of motivation; mentally he is not where he should be, a very honest Magnus Carlsen told the Norwegian reporter in very clear terms, yet incomprehensible for a non-Scandinavian audience. 53. Rxe2 ch, Kxe2 54. Bxf8, d4 55. Ne6, d3 56. Nc5 and 56. -, d2 is met by 57. Ne4, d1Q 58. Nc3 ch, and the white pawn on H4 will queen after the king blocks the e-pawn.

Final position. Black to move.

The knight captures both pawns. Carlsen expresses frustration, but manages to apologize to his opponent twice before leaving the playing hall. Extreme. The following day, he was not yet balanced and went for a quick draw against Nakamura with the white pieces. Caruana pressed on, playing well and finally got the better of Wei Yi. The world champion got himself into trouble against Arjun Erigaisi, but suddenly managed to wrinkle his pieces out of their binds:

White to move and win.

Gukesh gets one chance and never looks back. 43. Ne5 secures white the d3 pawn after 43. -, Re6 44. Rg8 ch , Ke7 45. Rg7 ch , Ke8 Repeating. Gaining time on the clock, using the increment. Then: 46. Rg8 ch , Ke7 47. Rxd8, Kxd8 48. Nxd3, Re2 49. a4, Rd2 50. Rf3 and white is simply two pawns up. Gukesh converts. Impressive resilience. This kid is a learner, but the talent is undisputed.

Standings

Fabiano Caruana in the lead with 12,5 points, followed by Dommaraju Gukesh with 11,5 points, trailed closely by Magnus Carlsen with 11 points. Caruana has to play both his rivals in the last three games and has Arjun Erigaisi in the third. Hikaru Nakamura can still make it from fourth position, but has to start wining. The first step is to beat the world champion with white in round 8. That will be one to watch, but the level of chess being played here is very high, so we will see, what will catch our attention tomorrow.

Personal rivalry matters

In top chess, personal relationships, and not least the rivalry, makes for difficult encounters. Nowadays we speak about ‘the Magnus effect,’ that some players trust Magnus instinct so much, that they will grant him the benefit of the doubt in critical situations. At times, that allows Magnus Carlsen to get out of trouble.

Position after 22. -, fxe6 Which pawn to take? - On C6 or E6?

After 23. dxc6, Qxc6 24. Ne5, Nxe5 25. Bxe5 white can sustain his advantage. Caruana rather quickly decided on 23. dxe6, Rxe6 24. Ne4, Ra5 25. Bc5, Qe8 Black regained coordination and equalized.

Position after 43. -, g5 White to move and win

Personally, I would have played 44. Ke3 and probably messed it up anyway. This is not the point. Caruana played 44. Nd5 and after 44. -, Ke6 45. Nf6, Bc8 the game fizzled into a draw. In the following Armageddon; Caruana played a well known variation in the Italian game, but was never really in a position to push for a win. As Carlsen’s pieces began to attack on the 5th rank, Cariuana seemingly lost confidence and when the chance arrived he was nothing like his old self; the two of them has had a world championship match against each other and since then, Carlsen has a spell on the American superman. There is something here beyond skill; a ‘Magnus effect’, as it is called:

Position after 22. -, Nh5 White to move and win

Note that the position is rather closed and the two knights are as good as the pair of bishops. If they are not put to propper use. Immediately. Black has just played the knight to H5. This opens up for a devastating tactics.

23. Bxe5, dxe5 24. Rd3, 0-0 25 Rd7 and F7 comes under attack. If 24. -, Nf6 25. Bxf7 ch, qxf7 26. Rd8 ch, Rxd8 27. Rxd8 ch, Ke7 28. Qxf7 ch, Kxf7 29. Rxd8 it is all straight forward, since 29. -, Ng8 will bind both king and knight to the kingside, leaving the rest of the board to the white king. For a player like Caruana, this should have been clear in a heartbeat. Instead he played 23. Be2, for some reason believing that 22. -, Nh5 was justified.

Checkmate

Towards the end, Caruana had to push for the win; remember conditions in Armageddon is that white must win to get the ekstra half point.

Bc2 or Rxc3?

Both loses. After Bc2, Rb4, there is nothing better than g3 - g4, since g6 - g5 would be checkmate. And after Rxc3, Rb1 it is the same story. Caruana chose for the latter and after Rxc3, Rb1 again, luft for the king is needed hence g4, Rh1 ch, but here Caruana he resigned, due to Kg3, Ne4 ch and the rook on C3 is lost.

The Indian chess phenomenon Arjun Erigaisi is always entertaining to watch. He is full of surprises, very dynamic and thrives in complicated positions. In the 4th round of Norway Chess 2025; Magnus Carlsen showed how to take tackle the exuberant equilibrist. In 50 moves, Carlsen realized the 130 rating-points difference. Effortlessly, it seems.

Position after 5. Rb1

Symmetrical English. A modern opening. White seeks to undermine the black center by playing b2 - b4. Note that the rook stays on B1 for 30 moves, supporting the pawn in the b-line that eventually determines the outcome of this game. Erigaisi makes a few smaller inaccuracies, but is basically not to blame for anything. He lands in a position his opponent understands better. That is all. Soon he is in trouble:

Position after 17. Qa4

Note how the white bishops dominate through the center. 17. -, Qd8 can be met by 18. Ba7 and the rook on B8 will be lost for the price of a bishop. 17. -, Qc7 is met by 18. Rfc1. Agadmator’s chess mentions Capablanca, due to the simplicity of whites play: The pawn on A5 is lost, leaving white with a clear plan: Fight for the center and march the b-pawn down the board. To me the Soviet school of chess and especially the games of Botvinnik comes to mind. Simple. Mechanical. Positional master class. How Yassir Seirawan must love this position. Grabbing a pawn. It looks so easy.

Position after 35. -, Rb6. White to move and win.

The white queen dominates, but how to proceed? Carlsen played 36. Re1, Qb8 37. Re8 ch, Qxe8 38. Qx b6 and the endgame is winning. Like his predecessors Andersson and Larsen, Carlsen have never lost a position like this.

Position after 45. Ke5

The black queen is running out of checks and the white king is ready to escort the b-pawn to the 8th rank. 45. -, Kg7 46. h4, Qd3 47. Qc5, Qf5 ch 48. Kd6, resigns.

Carlsen is in the lead with 8 points followed by his rivals. The higher rated players are on the top and the lower rated players in the bottom of the table. Friday is rest day.