Global status

Zooming out, observing the global political order from a distance; 7 zones of intensifying regional political dynamics emerge.

7 zones

Here is the list of intensifying regional political dynamics that I find, when employing my perspective on the world we live in, autumn 2024:

1. West Asia

2. Southeastern Europe

3. East Africa

4. West Africa

5. South Asia

6. East Asia

7. Middle- and Central America

The regions are listed in order of intensity and their perceived potential to spill over into intensifying global dynamics hence the listing is subject to change year on year. Southeastern Europe and West Asia have taken turns as number 1 on the list the last couple of years, due to the nuclear issue being present in both cases.

Overall assessment

Note that Africa is severely plagued by political instability. Some parts of Asia as well. Europe and South America are dominated by some relatively functional nation-states, containing and balancing regional political instability, but still suffering from the effects of global and local dynamics as is visible in Ukraine and Venezuela.

Major issues

Two major trends shape regional dynamics: 1) weakly founded and dysfunctional states is the fundamental driver of political instability; 2) the superpower has difficulties asserting itself through coercion, and lack structural, institutional, and productive power thus runs short of diplomatic leverage, legitimacy as ordering entity, and the ability to mold entities in its own image, thus losing power in the global social order of states. Frail units and lack of overarching power, leads to spiraling regional dynamics and hot wars, like the one between Kyiv and Moscow in The Ukraine.

West Asia

For a long time the regional dynamics in Southwestern Asia centered around a strategic triangle between Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran under the overlay of the superpower, USA. Currently, dynamics centers around polarization between Iran and its allies, the so called Axis of Resistance, and the object of that ‘resistance’, Israel, with Saudi Arabia somewhat withdrawing from the equation. The sustained presence of The State of Israel (1948 - ?) is guaranteed by the superpower, but increasingly becoming called into question in the geopolitical analysis of long term prospects, as Tel Aviv struggles to find lasting peace with its neighbors.

Teheran claims that its attack on Israel on 1st October 2024 was an act of retaliation. The UN Secretary General and a substantial part of the global diplomatic community has been in apparent acquiescence concerning the attack. This attack thus appears to be an attempt by Teheran to establish escalation dominance over Tel Aviv, who nevertheless has proclaimed that it remains undeterred and will continue operations in the region, including a counterattack on the territory of Iran.

Israel

The State of Israel is the strongest military force in the region. The absence of a major regional power creates balancing between a host of minor regional powers: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, UAE, flanked by Turkey on the verge of Europe and Egypt in Afrika. Here Israel is the strongest power among the four. Furthermore it is backed, seemingly unconditionally, by USA. Israel suffers from major infrastructural issues where a large part of the polity is opposed to its existence. This has over the years led to the formation of PLO (1964) and later Hamas (1987), who have their stronghold in Gaza, an enclave sought expelled by the Israeli polity in 2006. Until now Israel has been unsuccessful in detaching itself from Gaza, leading to severe infrastructural issues due to clashing political identities.

Axis of Resistance

The Islamic Republic of Iran (1979 - ?) is a substantial power with 92 million people, ten times more than Israels 9.4 million (around half a million people have left Israel this year). Dominated by Farsi speaking Persians, it suffers from a challenged political infrastructure stemming from ethnic diversity and a substantive city/countryside divide, prominently visible in Baluchistan, where separatists operate on both side of the Iranian-Pakistani border. Teheran has forged political entities throughout the region most notably Hezbollah (1982) dominating to the north of Israel in what was once Lebanon and Ansar Allah (1990ies) dominating the entry to the Red Sea in the West of what was once Yemen. Hezbollah and Ansar Allah, at times misdenominated ‘The Houthies’, after its leadership, are closely allied with Teheran and substantially supported, but have autonomy in pursuing their respective agendas. Both Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, and Hamas, but also Hamas rival Islamic Jihad, carry anti-Israeli political identities hence will not dissolve before Israel or they, themselves, are annihilated. This creates regional tension.

Iran strikes at Israel

A year ago tensions rose after Hamas made an incursion into Israel from Gaza securing hostages and withdrawing to tunnels inside of Gaza. This led to an incursion by Israel into Gaza. Soon Ansar Allah started pounding ships sailing towards the Suez Canal with missiles, leading to a reaction by the superpower. Hezbollah began showering northern Israel with missiles. Iran attacked Israel with drones and cruise missiles in April 2024 and on 31st of July the Hamas negotiator was assassinated in Teheran during the presidential inauguration ceremony. The Hezbollah leadership has also been assassinated, except for Naim Kassem, and after the death of Hassan Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah since 1992, on 27th of September, the pattern of Tel Aviv’s counterparts in diplomatic dialogue being killed, has emerged for alle to see, hence giving substance to Teherans claim, that it is retaliating on behalf of its sovereignty and its allies in the Axis of Resistance. The 1st of October attack was launched on Israeli military facilities inside Israel with hypersonic missiles, this time penetrating the Israeli air defence. The world awaits Israels next move.

Regional geopolitics

Israel is becoming surrounded by enemies. Jordan, its neighbor to the east, is still seeking to find its balance, and Egypt tries to stay neutral to events; Amman and Cairo are both on good footing with Washington, while Damascus, having recently fought a devastating intrastate conflict in Syria, is already at war with Tel Aviv since 1967. Now war may break out between Teheran and Tel Aviv. The interstate conflict is already tense. If Israel is to strike Iran in an act of retaliation, then there are several obvious targets: If Israel hits the Iranian oil industry hard, this may not sit well with China who buys 91% of Iranian oil, and that may have the consequence of Iran hitting oil facilities in the region as well as closing off the Hormuz strait, crippling oil supply and spurring a major global economic crisis. Teheran has already threatened to do so. Such a development could mobilize Saudi Arabia and UAE against Iran, but can hardly be in the interest of the superpower. Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia has proclaimed neutrality, disallowing USA to use their bases in their respective countries to aid Israeli strikes inside of Iran, possibly in an attempt to protect their own oil facilities. Oil and the flow of oil from this region is always a factor; if the Hormuz Strait closes, then the global dynamics will intensify, as the great powers will suffer.

The nuclear issue

Another target for Israeli retaliation that could invoke intensification of global political dynamics would be facilities connected to the Iranian nuclear programme; if successful, such attack could spur outcry globally, due to the auspices of IAEA, but also set back the Iranian ability to create a nuclear weapon. On the other hand, it would increase the incentive in Teheran to create a nuclear arsenal and establish a nuclear detterent vis a vis Israel. Until now, Israel is the only known nuclear armed power in the region.

Exactly how close Teheran is to assemble an a-bomb is not known. If they do so and make a succesful test, then Riyadh will probably be inclined to pursue nuclear weapons, possible through its connection to Islamabad. An earth quake, 4.1 on the Richter scale was detected in Iran over the weekend 5th and 6th of October. It seems to be exactly that, but Ayatollah Khamenei has proclaimed that even though it is contrary to Islamic Law, Iran will defend its sovereignty with nuclear weapons if necessary. 7th October 2024 is 1 year anniversary of the Hamas incursion into Israel. Tensions are high.

Prospect

The aim of Tel Aviv seems to be, dragging Washington into a direct confrontation with Teheran, instigating direct exchanges between USA and Iran. This could happen: The Superpower has a large presence in the region, with fleets and bases, also inside Syria and Iraq, where it may be vulnerable to attacks from missiles from Iran assisted by local Tehran proxies. It’s complicated and hangs in a balance.

Iran is doing better than ever with extensive ties to Moscow and Beijing. It is not clear what Israel can do to improve its situation long term. In the short term, tensions will escalate the conflict between Israel and the Axis.

Looking at the mid term prospect, 7 - 15 years into the future, we see scenarios form, that resemble the chaotic political dynamics of the 30-year war in Europe; fractional and reconstructive dynamics that led to the agreement of Westphalia in 1648. Much depends on a) tensions along the Shia vs. Sunni divide will continue to ease, b) whether nuclear deterrence will be established amongst the prominent powers, and c) whether a settlement is at all possible between them, and thus as well 4) how Saudi Arabia and UAE comes to stand, not to speak of e) whether and how the great powers will come to intervene. In short: uncertainty and insecurity rules, when we look into the crystal ball concerning the political stability of this region.