Notes on Iran
The last few months I have focused on making videos in Danish language about global politics. Here re my notes in English language from this week and the video from today in the end.
Here are my notes from Sunday 1. march - 2026 written by my former student Martin Borgholm.
Pro-regime mourners in Tehran’s Enqelab Square following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death Credit: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA/Shutterstock
Damage report — per 1. marts 2026
ISRAEL AND THE U.S. HAVE BOMBED OVER 1,000 TARGETS IN IRAN, ACCORDING TO WALL STREET JOURNAL
— Iran’s Foreign Minister,ARAGHCHI: BOMBINGS IN TEHRAN HAVE NO IMPACT ON IRAN WAR ABILITY
US President Donald Trump says the military operation against Iran may take up to four weeks.
Iran has raised the ‘Red Flag of Revenge’ over the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom. Signifies a vow to avenge the blood of a marty.
Conclusion: Iran has no incentive to stop pounding Israel, now. Can USA provide them with this incentive? How?
Trump told Iranians to “take the streets and reclaim their government”. So they did, and they are chanting “Death to America and Israel”.
Tehran calculates that the war can only end durably if the cost for the US rises dramatically, including American casualties.
For a ceasefire to be acceptable, it appears difficult for Tehran to agree to it until the cost to the US has become much higher than it currently is. Otherwise, the US will restart the war at a later point, the calculation reads.
Iran understands that many in the American security establishment had been convinced that Iran’s past restraint reflected weakness and an inability or unwillingness to face the US in a direct war. Tehran is now doing everything it can to demonstrate the opposite - despite the massive cost it itself will pay. Ironically, the assassination of Khamenei facilitated this shift.
Iran becomes first country in history to strike 11 countries in under 48 hours.
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria
UAE
Cyprus
Oman
Bahrain
https://x.com/Ahmed_hassan_za/status/2028570352696115358?s=20
Iraq
Iran strikes French naval base ‘Camp de la Paix’ in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle has been urgently redirected from the Baltic Sea to the Eastern Mediterranean,
UK PM Starmer says US can use British bases for ‘defensive strikes’. Starmer had previously stopped the US from using British bases to launch strikes on Iran.
Iran dramatically revamped its missile strategy after the June 2025 war. The past 24 hours have shown how:
Immediate retaliation: Instead of waiting days or even hours, the IRGC began reciprocal strikes immediately. Initial US-Israeli attacks: 9:27-9:45 am. Iranian retaliation by 10 am.
Regionwide, multi-front targeting: “Extensive missile and drone” attacks on 27 US bases, from Al Udeid Air Base, CENTCOM’s regional HQ, to Naval Support Activity Bahrain, home to the 5th Fleet, to sites in Jordan and Saudi Arabia where US forces amassed in recent weeks. Multiple waves (20 or more) against Israel, targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, the Golan Heights, etc.
Clockwork launch: Instead of firing swarms of missiles and drones, predominantly at night, Iran has switched to 24-hour continuous launch, designed to physically and psychologically drain enemy defenses and sow shock among US regional allies.
The latter tactics appear to be working. The Arab League has already urged all parties to “work towards de-escalation” and “spare the region the scourge of instability and violence.” Meanwhile, ordinary people in some Gulf nations, like Bahrain, are openly celebrating Iran’s retaliation.
Overwhelming defenses: Footage from multiple locations shows Patriots firing frantically attempting to intercept Iranian projectiles, often failing to do so thanks to Iran’s time-tested strategy of pairing slower missiles designed to keep enemy air defenses busy with hypersonic Fattah-series missiles against priority targets.
Urban strikes: Unlike past counterattacks, where Iranian Israel-facing social media kindly provided civilians with warnings on the city blocks or specific buildings that would be targeted, this phenomenon has not been seen this time around. Given the barbarity of the Israeli-US attack (decapitating Iran’s leadership, killing their family members, targeting a girl’s school, etc.), Iran may be forgiven for not ‘playing nice’ this time around.
Precision urban attacks: Footage from the Gulf shows what looks like the deliberate targeting of certain buildings, like Dubai’s Fairmont The Palm hotel and the Burj Al Arab. Iranian media channels and OSINT sleuths suspect the attacks targeted sheltering US military personnel and/or clandestine CIA sites.
Decentralized execution: The pace and fury of Iranian retaliation shows the IRGC was prepared for exactly the type of scenario that unfolded, with strikes proceeding despite severe blows to Iran’s political and military leadership.
— ANTPS-59 radar in Bahrain is destroyed —
— U. S. AN/FPS-132 (or FP-132) radar at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is destroyed
Lost strategic “Early Warning” capabilities.
Iran’s strategy is clear, degrade US, Arab, and Israeli missile detection, drain air defenses, then launch a massive swarm attack once they’re depleted. These are shaping ops. The big one may not have started yet
Air defences are rapidly depleting in Bahrain. Iran stopped using missiles and is using cheap mass manufactured drones.
IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAY THEY TARGETED U.S. AIRCRAFT CARRIER LINCOLN WITH 4 BALLISTIC MISSILES - STATE MEDIA
Iran has started striking oil rigs
An Iranian Shahed-136 drone targeted an Emirati oil rig in the Persian Gulf
IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS IN A STATEMENT: WE HAVE HIT 3 U.S AND UK OIL TANKERS WITH MISSILE IN THE GULF AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ - STATE MEDIA
The US embassies and consulates attacked by mass protestors in Pakistan and Baghdad.
Petrol bombs being thrown at the Israeli embassy in Dehli.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation
Houthis have declared the Bab al-Mandeb Strait closed to U.S. and Israeli ships. In response to Houthi attacks, U.S.-led naval forces (Operation Prosperity Guardian) have directed commercial ships to avoid the strait, leading to widespread route diversions around Cape of Good Hope. Major shipping companies like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Mediterranean Shipping Company have suspended operations through the Red Sea due to security risks.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, “Our military units are now, in fact, independent and somewhat isolated, and they are acting based on general instructions given to them in advance.”
“We began by targeting the enemy’s military bases in the region. However, they have evacuated those bases and relocated to hotels. In doing so, enemy commanders are effectively creating human shields for themselves. We have sought to confine our operations strictly to military personnel and facilities that are directly supporting actions against Iran.”
—Iran has warned that US soldiers must lay down their weapons and withdraw from the hotels and facilities they occupy across Gulf countries after evacuating their military bases, or they will be targeted.
Aljazeera: Nine Iranian warships destroyed.
— men flåden er ikke afgørende for at kunne lukke Hormuz
Trump aims to end military operation soon, says commentator Nahum Barnea; US proposed quick ceasefire, Tehran rejected the offer, Ynet reports.
Trump: “We’ll be talking to Iran. We should talk.”
The question “How will this end?” should have ben asked before this war was triggered. It wasn’t.
– Netanyahu says strikes on Iran “will increase even more in the coming days.”
Trump — “Combat operations continue at this time in full force, and they will continue until all of our objectives are achieved.”
Iran drones and missiles are cheap and easy to replace. But missile defense interceptions are expensive and time consuming to build. The math is in the Iranians favour. It’s the same broad cost-exchange problem US encountered fighting the Houthis.The US spent $7 billion bombing Houthis over about 6-7 weeks and failed to degrade Houthis’ ability to attack.
Post- Westphalia — The principle of non-interference in another country’s domestic affairs, and that each state (no matter how large or small) is equal under international law - is being bypassed regularly, if not on a weekly basis.
As European influence spread across the globe, these Westphalian principles, especially the concept of sovereign states, became central to international law and to the prevailing world order. However, the European colonization of Asia and Africa in the 19th century and two global wars in the 20th century dramatically undermined the principles established in Westphalia.
Regime change is not about decapitation or creating a new Delcy Rodrigues.
— Iran built the most layered contingency plan on Earth for this exact moment. Four levels of succession for every key position. Pre-authorized military strikes. Regional commanders who don’t need orders from Tehran to act.
— “you can’t decapitate a system that believes in itself” Scott Ritter — they will never be defeated.
— mass mourning and protests across Iran, Iraq, India, and Pakistan.
— The announcement of Khamenei’s death opened a window for people to pour onto the streets and seek to overthrow the regime. Though expressions of joy were widespread, no real mobilization was seen. That window is now closing, as the theocratic system closes ranks and establishes new formal leadership.
— Iran’s internet has been down for over 24 hours straight.
— This war is more likely to accelerate change in the White House than regime change in Iran. If Trump decisively loses the midterms, he will likely get impeached.
The alternative to the Islamic Republic offered by foreign actors is not liberation—its collapse. A bad government is survivable. No government is not.
Sinking a U.S. aircraft carrier would be the symbolic end of the American superpower era for the Global South.
US attack on Iran could be the end of the US military hegemony
https://x.com/ZacksJerryRig/status/2028343337460322701?s=20
https://x.com/IslanderWORLD/status/2028206432894509168?s=20
AI can translate this if needed.