Siege of Pokrovsk IV

The Armed Forces of Russian Federation do not slow down. They keep on grinding at the Southeastern Donbas fortifications; Ukraine Armed Forces are in retreat mode, while supplies are diminishing.

Logistics

Concerning southeastern Donbas, there is only the N15 highway left, leading from Andriivka/Kostyantynopil towards the east. AFU are semi-encircled in that area, and the N15 through Andrrivka/Kostyantynopil is the only way in and out. AFR is attempting to cut off supply lines to this juncture by seeking to block N 15 from the west, the T 0428 entering from northwest, and the T 0515 from Pokrovsk.

AFR is proceeding with its advancement from Selydove along the railway tracks towards the northwest moving towards T 0515, expanding the presence of AFR south of Pokrovsk. The long term aim is to establish fire control of E 50 in the westward direction, the main road supplying Donbas. AFR are established in Selydove seeking to create a zone of control around the town with drones and artillery.

Attrition

Donbas is under severe pressure along the frontline. Both north of Pokrovsk from Kupyansk and south along the Oskol river and ind the southeastern pocket there is severe danger og encirclement. Yesterday 9/11 2024 Ukraine handed over 37 bodies to Russia and received 563 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers. The ratio was 14.5. Casualty count is speculation, but few will contest that the loses taken by AFU the last year is unsustainable, and an existential challenge already in the short term; already in 2026 Ukraine will be out of men. Kyiv could enlist 21 - 26 year old men as conscripts but lack the patience to train them into a viable force. There is only one alternative to mobilization, but without young men, Ukraine will have very little prospect for ever becoming a country.

Withdrawal

That Kyiv shall surrender as soon as possible has been clear to observers for years. Now collapse of eastern Ukraine is imminent. With withering logistics and overwhelming pressure there is only one thing to do, and that is to order withdrawal in time to save as many soldiers as possible. If soldiers can be saved, then they may be there to fight another day; if AFU will nor surrender, then they must seek to take op positions across the Dnipro river. Desertions, especially among young and badly trained men are frequent. The frontline is literally falling apart, now. In this miniseries on The Siege of Pokrovsk, we shall follow the advances of AFR south of Pokrovsk stronghold while keeping an eye on events around Andriivka / Kostyatynopil, as the UAF withdraws along T0428 towards Mezhova.