Siege of Pokrovsk VII
When Velika Novosilka, Kurakhove, Toretsk, and Chassiv Yar have fallen, AFR is ready to break through at Pokrovsk, laying the eastern Ukraine bare.
Strategic ground
A war of attrition is not about territory. It is about exhausting the enemy forces with the aim of dominating its politics. Still war takes place on territory. Since the fall of Avdiivka, AFR has gained more ground each month compared to the previous month. In November 2024 AFR overtook 775 square kilometers, that is 26 km2 a day. It happens in bulks. Small breakthroughs. And again it is not the quantity of territory that matters. This is the wrong measurement of progress. The battle strength of the opponent is what matters; the quality of troops and ground is of strategic importance in diminishing the strength of the resistance . AFR has had their eyes on Chassiv Yar since the battle of Bakhmut 2 years ago. It is high ground overlooking the northwestern Donbas. This winter it will fall to AFR and that will allow for shelling of the last strongholds of Kramatorsk and Siversk.
Lack of men
AFU is short of manpower, facing 1000 lost in action per day. Lost in action = killed in action + missing in action + wounded in action. Kyiv counts most killed in action as missing in action. In this way, Kyiv can hide the number of dead as well as the number of desserters and captured. There are strong incentives to tamper with these numbers, both from a propaganda perspectives, but also due to corruption: Where relatives of the dead are entitled to pensions, missing in action can still receive their saleries. AFU is disorganized and heavily subjected to corruption. Most of its well functioning units display incredible bravery but are often forgotten due to discoordination on the operational level and abandoned.
Grave strategic mishaps
On top of the high rate of losses due to organizational chaos and a general will to withdraw, we should highlight the tendency to make politically motivated military decisions like the defence of Bakhmut, the great summer offensive of 2023, the Kursk offensive, and the delayed withdrawal from Vuhlidar, operations conducted for propaganda purposes. Especially the displacement of troops in Kursk has left the eastern frontline depleted of mobile elite troops and thus left prone to rapid collapse, where operational encirclement is the order of the day. AFU are fighting for survival around Kurakhove and Velika Novosilka. Whenever these matters are discussed seriously in Western media outlets on occasion, the unwillingness to surrender is always explained by frases without reference to the strategic reality on the ground: ‘We must fight to the last Ukrainian,’ or ‘the war is the Russians fault; they can pull out.’ Now Washington has decided that 18 - 26 years old men must be conscripted. Many has already fled, but expending the last kohorte could mean the end of Ukraine.
The last bastion
This winter we have chosen to focus on Pokrovsk. The building pressure on this strategic hub means diminished distribution of resources to the Donbas region, but will eventually mean the capture of a large railway crossing that will supply AFR advances towards the Dnipro river. In the current pace of events we are only months away from Pokrovsk falling. These weeks AFR improved its positions to the south of Pokrovsk, consolidating around Shevshenko and Novotroitske. This will allow AFR to attack the settlement while moving further westward and strengthen their reach of the highway junctures with drones. At the current pace AFR could commence the operational encirclement that will eventually force AFU out already in the beginning of 2025, but may choose to fight Pokrovsk head on as in Toretsk.
Still no reporting from the eastern front
None of the strategic troubles and mishaps endured by Kyiv reach the Western mainstream media; most national broadcasting still lives in the Phantasy Land invoked by their modus vivendi rehearsed in earlier wars, enforced by a seemingly ignorant political class. At the moment, discussion revolves around the idea that russia can have land and Ukraine can have NATO membership. This means that there is no sign of peace, since the Moscow conceding to that, would mean that they should give up their aim of the war, standing on the threshold of dominance on the battlefield. For the history of civilization, that would be a first. The conclusion is therefore, that Washington is still bend on sacrificing the last Ukrainian before the West wakes up to reality.