Ukraine Revisited I
A major source of global political instability is the situation in Ukraine. NATO has sought expansion into the area for decades to the dismay of the regional power, who has now occupied the southeast.
Realities on the ground
The Russians have dug in and build a defensive line from Vasylivka at the shore of the Dnipro river in Zaporizhzhia oblast to Troitske east of Kupiansk in the north of Luhansk oblast. In this way they are flanked by the river on the one side and by Belgorod oblast, on the other. Behind this more than 600 kilometer long defensive line, situated some 5 – 20 kilometers from the contact line, where clashes currently takes place between the two armed forces, the Russians have constructed multiple fortifications and even more elaborate defensive lines, shielding for instance the strategic town of Tokmak, the point an attacker will need to secure, in order to launch a siege of Melitopol, that is the central strategic objective for Kiev: Controlling Melitopol seems to be the only way to sustain an attack on Crimea sometime in the future. The political objective is for Kiev to re-establish the designated territory of Ukraine under Kiev’s control. Since the beginning of June 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have sought south, through the fields, looking for an opening by which to spearhead towards the Black Sea coast. The problem is, that the whole idea is nothing but a pipedream.
Ukraines Armed Forces on the offensive
The Russians hold on to their defensive positions, stalling advances from UAF. When the Russians took these positions, in spring 2022, Kiev and its allies were busy ridiculing the Russian Armed Forces, blaming the whole affair on the Russians, and painting everything in their own favor, so that the NATO countries would donate large amounts of equipment and train troops for the upcoming offensive, whereby Kiev should reclaim its lost territory by force. Until now UAF has been unable to reach the Russian defensive line and is thus caught on the low ground between artillery positions, upheld by the Russians on the high ground and with the balance of air power heavily favoring the Russians, it is a steep uphill battle for UAF, no matter equipment and training. This has resulted in the UAF suffering heavy losses of manpower, while it is having its armored vehicles, ammunition depots, raders, and anti-air systems destroyed, without any significant gains of territory.
Unsustainable burn rate
UAF are suffering casualties from the Russian artillery, anti tank guided missiles (ATGM), mines, and air defense, especially the Ka-52 helicopter named ‘Alligator.’ Kiev’s burn rate is around 0,5% of their offensive capacity per day in my estimate. The fog of war is covering most evaluations, but from what I see of serious assessments, backed up by imagery, my estimate seems to be in the conservative end of the spectrum. From a military perspective this is unsustainable: If the UAF shall penetrate the defense line, then it will have to increase the daily burn rate. We have already seen desertations from platoons who refuse to enter combat in an open field filled with the dead bodies of their former colleagues. That is not a sign of cowardice; that points to lack of command integrity. Everything should be taken with a grain of salt, but at some point it simply adds up and the analyst must make an evaluation based on the facts.
Inside the echo chamber
Kiev is fighting a war where the strategy is to cater to the propaganda that will eventually secure support in capitols of NATO countries. Those who only have a superficial understanding of The Ukraine Question, its history and its effect on international relations, could easily be persuaded by Kievs narrative, and will eventually get bored by it all, long before they realize what is actually going on; that is, if they ever do. There has been a lot of talk about the Great Ukrainian Spring Offensive coming up; whenever the weather was right for it, we would see the great spirit of Ukraine prevail over the badly prepared, technologically inferior and unmotivated Russians, but without the means to mass a striking force to fit the task, Kiev is now stuck with huge expectations that they cannot fulfill. Kiev must find a way to stop believing its own propaganda, and start licking its wounds and reconsider based on reality, before it is too late, and the Russians begin grinding towards the eastern banks of the Dnipro yet again.
Kiev must stop
A major issue is that any critique uttered, should it pass through the massive wall of propaganda, is condemned as aiding the enemy and essentially deemed to be unpatriotic. Unfortunately, this goes for the politicians as well, who at times seems to believe in their own tale: Nobody dares to say anything against the Kremlin; anyone can criticize Kiev. Really? We are left with the realities on the ground and without any plan of reaching goals, that would improve its position at the negotiating table, Kiev’s propaganda strategy, though effectively orchestrated, is ultimately fatal. This has been the broad assumption in geopolitics, since UAF got bogged down defending Bakhmut on the eastern front, leaving the Russians enough time to mobilize for war. Here it became clear that the strategy was disconnected from the needs of the situation: Defending Bakhmut seemingly teased the Russians; the audience loved it, but the Russians are in position, now, and Kiev is in dire straits. That is reality, and the failure to face up to the facts, spun around by ones own spin, will prove more costly for each day to come, until a decision is reached to stop the nonsense and safe the Ukrainians.