Under Reconstruction
The Levant is no more to be treated as a separate security complex. Now it is part of a West Asian Dynamic as the regime in Damascus collapses. 'Syria' and 'Lebanon' are under reconstruction.
What happened to the Levant?
How does the power struggle unfold?
Prospect unknown
Regime change in Damascus
Since the fall of the Ottoman empire West Asia has struggled with addressing the problem of political form: Some nation-state constructions are emerging in the region, all of them challenged: Türkyie, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Iran. When we get to the Arabian peninsula , there is more political stability, except for the area formerly known as ‘Yemen’; like ‘Libanon’ and ‘Syria’, I place names in inverted commas, indicating that although they may be recognized as political entities, there is no materialization of a viable political form present in these geographically defined areas: The regime in Damascus could no longer pay its own security forces and had no access to income, since the northeastern part of ‘Syria’ was abandoned in 2011 and is currently occupied by a US backed Kurdish militia. There has been little to no ‘fuel’ for building a state here for a long, long time. ‘Syria’, like ‘Lebanon’ and ‘Yemen’ are what I call purple, i.e. beyond red, ‘purple’ = under reconstruction. It means in layman terms, that Damascus is not able to project power onto its designated territory. At all. The story about regime change and how the freedom fighters toppled the tyrant, is therefore misleading. ‘Syria’ is under reconstruction. It been like that for a long time. That the regime faded away is not a surprise, but it is nevertheless an important moment, with central actors reconstituting their stance in the region.
West Asia with the Arabian Peninsula, surrounded by the tip of Northeastern Afrika, Southeastern Europe, Russia, Caucasus, Central Asia and a glimpse of South Asia to the east of Iran.
Different groups in ‘Syria’
The inability to project power onto the designated territory is a challenge for all powers in the region. Relatively. But for Beirut and Damascus it is absolute. No matter how much Beirut will be able to pose as sovereign, real power lies with Hezbollah. Also after the so called ‘decapitation’: Hezbollah has taken a blow, and now their supply route from Teheran seems to be physically cut. That poses challenges for the Axis of Resistance forming against Israel. But to think that Hezbollah is beaten would be to believe in fairytales, like the ones coming from Tel Aviv and London about these matters. The corridor from Iran through Iraq and Syria has been under US/Israeli fire control for a long time, with Israel hitting the airport in Damascus: Tel Aviv and Damascus has been at war since 1967. Now Israel has moved into Qunetra once again, and reports has arrived of IDF establishing a buffer to the northeast of Israels borders. In the other end of Syria, Türkyie has its own bufferzone. Reports are coming in, that Ankara is seeking to pick a fight with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), consisting of Kurdish forces (YPG) backed by the Washington (Pentagon). The remaining territory is claimed to be under the control of groups adhering to the banner of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) as elders from the Alawite sect concentrated around the port city of Latakia struck an agreement with HTS last night.
Map by Keon Adams.
More turmoil ahead
Three minor regional powers struggle in ‘Lebanon’ and ‘Syria’: Türkyie, Israel, and Iran. Iraq is weak. I classify Iraq as red. It is broken. Like Egypt, it is doomed to seek a garrison state and retain status quo. In terms of power projection, Bagdad cannot do much. They have tried to dismiss the US presence, but the bases are still there, from where Washington can support its allies in their struggle for survival in the region. Jordan and Israel. I categorize them as orange. This means that they are dealing with internal struggles. Like Türkyie, where Ankara is struggling with Kurdish separatists and Iran, where Teheran must deal with Baluchistan. Tel Aviv struggle with a large group of ‘Palestinians’ whose political identity is directed against Israel. Amman, who is housing 3 million Palestinians, around 27% of its total population, must balance its concerns carefully, and seek to do the bidding of Washington when possible. Israel is in an existential struggle; not so much because of its internal issues, although they are grave, but because it has become the subject of animosity from The Axis of Resistance, including Ansar Allah in Yemen, supporting the Palestinian struggle and working to destroy Israel. At the moment, the new regime in Damascus must seek to establish itself as it can, and intensify political unity amongst its members and the population to sustain its presence. The situation is frail. This creates an opportunity for Israel to secure itself and eventually, to expand its territory. Whether the analysts in Mossad are satisfied with the long term consequences of the development in ‘Lebanon’ and ‘Syria’ is dubious.
In conclusion
The consequences of these events are up in the air. So is basic coordination. The CIA fingerprints are all over the cash floating, the surveillance photos, as well as the strategic target selection of the HTS operation, leading us to speculate whether the conflict between Pentagon and CIA is out in the open along the default lines of ‘Syria’, SDF on one budget, HTS on another, while State Department apparently still has a 10 million $ bounty on one of HTS head Abu Mohammed al-Julani’s previous aliases. It wouldn’t work in a movie script. Simply too far fetched. Let us just say, that the prospect of West Asia is fairly unpredictable. Will the population in ‘Lebanon’ and ‘Syria’ get some peace in the years to come? I certainly hope so. Analysis, though, suggests that we could see more turmoil ahead: There are too many actor who can hope to benefit temporarily from chaos.