The Siege of Pokrovsk VIIII

It goes downhill for Ukraine. Very fast. Pokrovsk is a symptom of the lost fight. Kyiv's forces simply cannot uphold resistance and their hopes for a magical solution is also fainting.

Towards operational encirclement of Pokrovsk

A main goal for AFR in the Ukraine war is to take Pokrovsk; when Kyiv loses Pokrovsk, then its defenses will begin to crumble. Slowly but surely, the settlement is becoming surrounded, whereby the siege will enter the decisive phase. At the current pace, Pokrovsk will fall before summer. Now we are entering the cold months, where temperatures go bellow 0 degrees celsius. Once a logistical hub, Pokrovsk now has difficulties sustaining its own supplies. AFR has now obtained direct fire control over the E50, forcing AFU to use the northern road as their only entry and exit point. With AFR drones hovering over the town and roads, the situation is extremely fragile:

Heavy pressure

All along the frontline, from Kursk to Velyka Novosilka, the pressure on AFU only increases, as seasons change and the well oiled war machine of AFR moves forward. Many along the frontline, and in the West, have high hopes that something magical could happen, as USA changes its president next week. Donal J. Trump has said during the election campaign, that he would be able to stop the war in one day. To do that, he should change the regime in Kyiv, and make sure that the new government of Ukraine surrendered to all Kremlins demands. The latest to come out from the incoming administration is that they will attempt to stop the war in 100 days. But there is still no sign of how. Beside capitulation there is no way out for Kyiv. It is likely that AFR will be operating inside Dnipropetrovsk oblast already in the spring, surmounting pressure on the weakly fortified positions on the road to Zaporizhzha.

Kyiv must surrender now

The situation in Pokrovsk is only a symptom. Since august 2023 the conclusion has been the same: AFU cannot alter the situation; Kyiv is outgunned and lack soldiers hence there is only one result possible: the sooner capitulation is effectuated, the better for the prospect of Ukraine. It is a simple calculus. But it is far from certain that the West will accept the arithmetic, and even less certain, that Western governments will accept the realities in Ukraine. One may wonder whether they even care. It looks like Washington will attempt to get the Europeans to fight on, while USA withdraws from the war, that it has provoked and funded for a decade, with the plan of weakening Russia. Meanwhile the casualty rate will go way past 1000 Ukrainians per day. That means another 100.000 after 100 days. For how long will the Europeans accept this behavior from the superpower? Can they afford to?