Matching of Expectations

Approaching 2025 expectations seems to rise in the West concerning global conflict resolution. A bit of caution may be suiting for those who enjoy New Years analysis and have a reputation to uphold.

The great magician

The political is often personalized in our day and age. People speak about ‘Putin’, ‘Trump’, ‘Xi’, and ‘von der Leyen’, instead of Moscow, Washington, Beijing, and Brussels. An idea is spreading that one person can change everything, like a magic throw from a quarterback in the Super Bowl: When Trump is coming to The White House on January 20th 2025, conditions will somehow change overnight, and everything will be solved. No doubt, Donald J. Trump is a formidable character. But geopolitics does not work like real estate or entertainment; the political is ultimately about annihilation depending on the political condition, and no matter how charming you are as a person, the condition is not going to alter.

Ukraine

In the war currently unfolding in Southeastern Europe, the political condition does not favor negotiations. Firstly, what could end the ongoing battle is only capitulation; no matter how Washington will try to make it look in the eyes of the citizens in Western countries, Kyiv has lost the war, hence will either seek end of hostilities or have the last of its men slaughtered: Moscow has no incentive to stop the onslaught, since the Armed Forces of The Russian Federation (AFR) has the upper hand hence has no reason to engage in agreements short of capitulation = no NATO in ‘Ukraine’ (what is left of the territory designated to Kyiv); no so called ‘national socialist ethnic policies’ against Russian or any minorities in ‘Ukraine’; withdrawal from Russian annexed territory by The Armed Forces of The Ukraine (AFU): these are the demands from the regime in Moscow. Secondly, the regime in Kyiv is not to be part of a dialogue on the future of ‘Ukraine’, since it does not represent anybody but themselves, a regime that the Kremlin renders illegitimate on the grounds that they are responsible for having destroyed the country for personal gains by spilling Russian and Ukrainian blood: at the moment AFR are grinding forward in their regular pace, ignoring the coming chance of guards in Washington. Thirdly, Washington has no leverage, since Capitol Hill cannot present a credible threat: having shot missiles into Russia for a while has only revealed that Russian rocket science is second to none, especially when it comes to shooting down incoming missiles and inventing hypersonic rockets that can hit the enemy at will. Without the means of further escalation NATO has only one thing to rely on and that is propaganda. But the propaganda may be used to mobilize The West, not to make peace with The Rest.

West Asia

Concerning the bridgehead in the eastern Mediterranean Sea; what was known in geopolitics as ‘The Levant’, Washington is in a bit of a squeeze: getting out of this situation is not a matter of ‘striking a deal.’ Again: propaganda works in favor of Israel and its backers, but reality has hit the enclave hard since it was attacked by Hamas on 7^th October 2023. Recently, the western media has cheered the return of Islamic fundamentalism in what was known as ‘Syria’. The disappearance of Assad regime was an easy sell; the political condition remains, and this area has been unstable for millennia; even during the iron age Assyrian civilization calm was short lived despite its incredible superiority in power distribution. According to western media the invasions and bombings by Ankara and Tel Aviv contribute to the peaceful transition to ‘democracy’ and ‘rebuilding efforts’, but how long before the realities take over and the focal point will have to shift again? That something else will turn up soon, could be the best bet for Washington: The Russians and Iranians has backed off in ‘Syria’, but what does the CIA playbook contain for the future, now that the special operation ‘HTS’ has prevailed? Does the US have an exit strategy, or will the superpower once again find itself sucked into the mother of all quagmires? Does Washington count on the anger towards the situation in Gaza to ease anytime soon? Really?

China

Let us just say that Washingtons stance vis a vis China is a mess. The bold idea was to destabilize Russia and contain China; the opposite happened, and now China is a monumental economic force deeply entangled with most of the countries in the world, not least the USA itself. Instruments of crude punishments like tariffs are in the air, but is that desirable when economic interdependency is high, and Washington is running their allies economies into the ground and display rampant deficits on their own national budget? Do realities allow for such measures? What other measures are readily available for the new administration to deploy? I reckon we shall manage expectations here: The facts point to China being stable and hopes in State Department of provoking Beijing to attacking Taiwan soon are difficult to nourish for anyone with a sense of reality: As long as they posses a steady grib on power, The CCP central committee and its chairman can wait for ages in the believe, that ‘China will be united’. Washington can attempt to escalate the trade conflict and revoke skirmishes around The Philippines, but whether that would lead to a military confrontation is not so likely, and for the time being, the presence of DF – 26 missiles on the shores of mainland China determines the outcome of a war in the east China Sea to the advantage of Beijing in the Pentagon scenarios hence Washington shall be ready to go nuclear and self-destruct to have a ‘rationally’ founded plan for engaging in war with China. Unlikely. Washington may try to impose tariffs but may also come short of results in an economic tit for tat against the world’s leading manufacturing power.

In conclusion

We see that the superpower could have been much better off today had it pursued a global regime based on mutual recognition instead of shoot first talk latter; it worked for John Wayne in the movies, often enough, but it did not work for Washington in the beginning of the 21st century. Now, they will have to clean up their own mess. Are they able? One thing is for sure: The popular image of a 36^th level magic user descending onto the scene, altering the global political condition by the sheer fear of his spells will have to come to terms with the real world in 2025. US faces very difficult situations abroad. But really, the troubles are even more severe at home. The superpower is strong and can still throw its weight around and gain some victories; just don’t expect miracles, ok?