A Pragmatic Partnership
It may be a while before The People's Republic of China and The Russian Federation become allies, but their relationsship deepens each decade and is nowadays varmer than ever.
A relationsship develops
During the cold war, differences between Beijing and Moscow prevailed, turning the two major powers against each other, despite their ideological concord. During the 1990ies, the diplomacy of high-level meetings was established and in the 2000s Kremlin actively sought to settle differences, commencing with the resolve of the more than 7000 territorial disputes that was left over from the past. During 2010s both Beijing and Moscow consolidated regimes and formed a back-to-back relationship despite obvious differences of economic interests due to asymmetry: Russia wants high commodity prices, China low. In the 2020ies these two giants, one territorial; the other populous, are turning towards each other and continuously decide to increase interregional corporation. On the global level they are forming a pragmatic partnership that appears to be mutually beneficial.
The 2023 Moscow encounter
The two leaders, Xi and Putin, had their scheduled meeting in Moscow around March 21st, 2023. Little of the usual media strategy, economizing with pictures of Xi prevailed; on the contrary, extended handshakes and mutual respect oozes from the video footage. Obviously, the adoration of Beijing in face of the courage shown by Russia in taking on NATO was sought conveyed with all the means available by the CCP propaganda apparatus. Still, that part of the meeting was by and large overlooked by the mainstream media in The West, were focus is on public opinion and western discourse, rather than geopolitical facts and conclusions based on sound analysis. That this was an opportunity for Kremlin to capitalize on the interdependencies between China and Russia was not to be ignored, though. There was no doubt much to discuss by the respective delegations and their leaders.
Ukraine conflict lurking underneath
Not least the Chinese initiative for facilitating a peace process in Ukraine seems to play out effectively on the global scene, painting the USA as the party who is pro war and China as proponent for peace, especially among those who have not bought The West’s narrative and the idea that Russia is the aggressor, stay neutral to this narrative, or even agree with Beijing and Moscow, that the aggressor is USA. Under talks about trade and corporation, the framework for peacetalks in Ukraine, suggested by China, was all but mentioned, leading to speculation enhancing the design. After China’s bid for forming a peace process, following its recent success with Iran and Saudi Arabia, it is crystal clear to those who subscribe to the narratives of Strategic encirclement of China and NATO expansion towards Russia, as the sources of global instability, that the leaders of The Rest are not going to simply lie down without a fight. On the contrary it seems. The dynamics of global polarization looms large stressing the issues on the global security agenda and the concrete arrangement of the global political order.
Russia’s gains
Xi has left Moscow and it is time to set the scores. Locally, concerning Ukraine, Putin has a tolerable middle game if the armed forces of The Russian Federation does not collapse in Zaporizhzhia. Regionally, Belarus and Kazakhstan seem to be back in the fold, despite reluctance to follow Moscow in acknowledging the newly annexed oblasts in southeastern Ukraine. Interregionally, Kremlin stands firm by deepening the partnership with China hence may hope to hang on to its bid for regional hegemony in the long run. Russia societal development suffers set back, but Kremlin has delivered on standing firm against NATO expansion into the northern part of the Black Sea hence globally, Russia has lost one eagle, the one facing west, since Kremlin was not willing to subject to Washington and its allies concerning Georgia and Ukraine and thus, Kremlin now subjects to Beijing and enter an asymmetric relationship, where Russia’s bid for great power status is set aside and postponed.
China’s gains
Globally, China can pull in participants from around the world to rally for Beijing’s cause, presenting an alternative to subjection to the superpower, silently heralding Russia for its defiance. Interregionally, China gains influence in Central Asia by Russian acknowledgement of its dependency on the great power. Regionally, China secures itself access to inexpensive commodities long term. Locally, concerning Ukraine, Russia can subject to the Chinese perspective on peace in Ukraine while materially upholding its occupation of southeastern Ukraine and seek to renew its global geopolitical leverage in the wake of Chinese leadership, a global strastegic goal for Beijing.
The pragmatic partnership between China and Russia is a win – win situation.