Global Security Agenda
What is the major long-term challenge to global security? Lack of state capacity, since without state capacities we cannot meet any challenge!
This account of the global security agenda is part of a theoretical complex named Global Polity Theory hence uses a specific and defined vocabulary. The definition of concepts, theorems, and in-depth analysis is found on the Substack named Global Polity. Links are added in the text; in this way these posts will add up to the publication of the theory! The term Global Polity refers to the global society of states, grasping the inherent interdependencies and polarizations within and between political entities as a global political order. Global Polity Theory is my Theory of Political Order applied on analysis of global politics.
On the verge of 2023 I thus commence on offering my perspective on global politics in posts on Substack. Subscribe and be sure to be updated by leaving your mail address at
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Welcome!
Global Polity
The following perspective on geopolitics is based on a scientific theory and offers a unique perspective and concrete analysis. In Global Polity Theory, we see states as part of a social order of states, with cultural, political, and economic ties; we see a global society of states displaying clear anarchic and at times plutocratic tendencies, founded on antagonisms and dependencies.
There are four major entries on the global security agenda
1) Interstate conflict: warfare, potentially escalating into standoff between major powers, with the potential for further escalation.
2) Threats to global political stability other than war: spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) developed and deployed by state or non-state actors.
3) Intra-state conflict: absence of sovereignty, calamities due to sustained power vacuum, and fragmented territories turning infra-state issues into groups pitched vis a vis each other, eventually strengthened by external forces, and eventually escalating into interstate conflict.
4) Infra-state issues: degenerating state capacity entailing alternative monopolizations of violations, human security issues, environmental problemata, and mass migration challenges, potentially escalating into intra-state conflict or anarchic conditions.
On sovereignty and the distinction between infra-, intra-, and interstate conflict
The central concept in Global Polity Theory is sovereignty. When sovereignty is weakened, then infra-state issues, stemming from limited policing and limited legality, prevail. Eventually, intra-state conflict breaks out, and that may in its wake entail interstate conflict and war. We shall see this happening in the example of Ukraine. The point here is that the driver of this dynamic is sovereignty. With ceasing sovereignty polity approaches a weakened state where the lack of state capacities leads to further loss of state capacities, leading to political instability in a downward spiral. Attacks of sovereignty on sovereignty constitutes interstate conflict (1). Weak sovereignty in a political entity leads to lack of territorial control constituting infra-state issues (4). Broken sovereignty constitutes intra-state conflict (3). Ceasing sovereignty and lack of state capacities is a dominant trend and a major issue in global politics. State capacities are deployed to sustain sovereignty. The strongest state capacity to be sought by polities is WMD (2).
The trend of global politics
In grasping global politics, it is important to understand, that without state capacities, there is no collective action possible, and challenges arising from economic, environmental, social, or cultural issues, like financial collapse, effects of climate change, threats to human security, distribution of rights, or issues concerning political marginalization, can only be addressed if sufficient state capacities are present. In Global Polity Theory we focus on the causation and the dynamics of geopolitics and conflicts. Lack of state capacity can lead to the inability to mend the political condition and entail further lack of state capacity which may lead to a downward spiral, political instability, and eventually state break down and intra-state conflict. Our focus is thus on measuring polity stability and monitoring developments in order to describe what is happening to a society, providing the basis for understanding and explaining political events.
Global security agenda concretized
Let me unfold this perspective in relation to the global security agenda and the global society of states by concretizing and exemplifying in reference to each point on the agenda:
1) Commencing the year 2023 two issues stand out concerning interstate war. The status of Taiwan and deterioration of the situation in Ukraine. In a broader perspective there are a handful of interstate conflicts, most of them unfinished wars like the one between a) India and Pakistan, the smaller of the two, that used to be backed by USA and increasingly by China; b) North Korea vs. South Korea and its major ally, USA, and c) Israel vs. Syria, backed respectively by USA and Russia, who also share a default line as the intra-state conflict in Ukraine, turned into an interstate war d) d) Ukraine vs. Russia, through the standoff between Kremlin and Kiev backed by USA, EU, and U.K. Of grave concern is also tensions building around Taiwan, a silent intra-state conflict within China, where Beijing following the party congress in 2022 has initiated a national security council focused on unification in confrontation with Taipei, who on its side is backed by USA. Note the frequent mentioning of USA, the superpower. Already in the following post named Global Political Order, we present an overview of the global distribution of power. Current focus on the agenda is Taiwan and Ukraine. These conflicts involve all major powers: USA, China, Russia, EU, U.K., and Japan except from India and Brazil, who nevertheless both have their hands full in their respective regions; India with Pakistan and emerging issues in Sri Lanka, and Brazil with the development in Venezuela and issues at the border between Peru and Columbia as well as within these polities. We see tendencies towards global polarization, where we shall focus on an emerging axis between Russia and China in a following post entitled A Pragmatic Partnership.
2) The threat of the use of nuclear weapons has resurfaced as Russia claims Ukrainian territory to be part of Russia through 2022 annexation thus formally subjecting these territories under the Kremlin nuclear doctrine. Beijing, an emerging pragmatic partner of Kremlins, is sceptic towards this saber rattling with WMD and retains its retaliatory nuclear weapon doctrine. Only Kremlin and Washington sustain first strike doctrine concerning WMD. Recently, Pyongyang has developed nuclear weapon capacity and proceeds with pursuing intercontinental missile capability. Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons. Iran and North Korea are both subject to substantive economic sanctions imposed by USA, EU, U.K. through United Nations Security Council Resolutions hence marginalized in the global polity due to their pursue of WMD. In 2022 also Russia became subject to substantive economic sanctions distributed by these three major entities and their allies often named ‘The West.’ In global polity theory, this distinction between ‘West’ and ‘others,’ at times named ‘The Rest,’ constitutes a demarcation between ‘global elite formation’ and ‘global mass formation’ sustaining a hierarchy in global polity. The subjection to the status quo of such political order is contested by several states notably China and Russia, but fundamentally also India, who each in their way pursues a leadership role among ‘The Rest.’ India and its rival Pakistan have nuclear weapons. So does U.K., France and Israel. Japan could have a warhead within weeks.
3) The spread and sustenance of intra-polity conflict is a major if not the major issue for Global Security, since it carries political instability in its wake. China is a very strong power compared to the rest of the powers belonging to ‘The Rest’ but China is haunted by infra-polity issues in the western part of the country as well as the intra-polity issue of Taiwan, since Taiwan is considered by Beijing to be under Chinese sovereignty. Taiwan considers itself to exercise full autonomy but is reluctance to claim independence. This schism constitutes conflict potential due to the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. We shall soon address this conflict, but we commence by focusing on the Ukraine intra-polity issues and the development of interstate war between Kremlin and Kiev. In this context, the intra-state conflict in Azerbaijan over the Artsakh Republic/ Nagorno-Karabakh territory and its potential to spill over into a direct standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan should be mentioned as it is again becoming heated, since the 2020 offensive by Azerbaijan. We shall focus on this conflict when we shall come to the discussion of the tectonic shifts in the global polity that came from the collapse of the Soviet Union under the heading of The Post-Soviet Space, where we also re-visit the republics of the former Yugoslavia and the sustained tensions in Bosnia Hercegovina and North Macedonia. Africa is the continent most haunted by intra-state conflict. The belt from Yemen and Somalia through Ethiopia and South Sudan to Central African Republic and the Congo contains devastating conflicts and disaster, and spreads further into conflict ridden polities like Cameron and Angola. In the first rim around the EU, there are prolonged intra-polity conflicts in Lebanon (1975), Syria (2011), Libya (2011), and Ukraine (2014). In South America we find long term intra-polity conflict in Colombia. Syrian situation has produced 5 million plus refugees, many of them residing in Turkey.
4) State capacity is challenged: more and more states are becoming beyond repair, forming potential permanent power vacuum and severe infra-state issues that may develop into intra-state conflict. Venezuela is a case in point here. 5 million people have fled Venezuela since the collapse of the economy there. Burkina Faso is another case in point, where several armed groups form alternative monopolies of violence. All the surrounding countries in the Western Sahel are affected by their inability to generate state capacities leaving the region in a condition of ‘political reconstruction.’ In the Middle East especially Iran stands out here, with its Azeri and Balochi regions displaying weak political infrastructure, not to speak of direct turmoil in Tehran and major cities; also Irans regional partners in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen experience the lack of state capacities with different consequences. Myanmar is another case in point that draws our attention, but examples of crippled polities on the earth are legion. Degenerating states is a major trend in the global polity, and this trend shall be followed closely in these posts taking their point of departure in polity analysis. Note that in the first rim around EU, we find Albania, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt and Turkey all dealing with these issues. The sheer volume of infra-state issues and their potential for deteriorating into situations under item 3) is the most pressing issue of global security, not least because any implementation concerning human security including rights and, for instance, measures to avoid effects of climate change will depend on state capacities. Unfortunately, state capacities are in high demand and sparse supply in the global society of states. We shall investigate why it is so, and why this is not likely to change soon (See ‘Democracies versus Autocracies).
Global polity and lack of state capacity
A central axiom in the global polity theory is that the global political order consists of relations between polities hence internal political stability and endurance of polities sustains the basic structure of the global political order. In Global Polity power flows between entities and towards weak entities through external intervention. Note here that a high score (above 7,5) in the Fragile States Index under the category External Intervention indicates weak sovereignty and lack of state capacity will be visible throughout that dataset. How we more precisely measure state capacity is more elaborate and is clarified through polity analysis, a central tool for the objectification of the structural level of analysis in this theory. It detects political instability. Often, we take the point of departure in polity analysis and focus on the distribution of power in the system noting how seemingly external actors come to influence and at times determine events. One of the first cases that we shall investigate in depth is the situation in Ukraine (2003 – 2014) and subsequent events.
The following post and the next
The purpose of these posts is to distribute geopolitical knowledge by conveying the perspective of global polity theory and analyze cases. This perspective provides understanding of the pressing geopolitical issues. In the following post, we continue circling in on the global political order by focusing on the ranking of great powers: USA, China, EU, Japan, Russia, U.K. et al. Here I also present the basic dynamic between great powers in the global polity. This will lead us to focus on the situation in the Ukraine, Political stability in Russia, Taiwan and onto other geopolitical focal points.