Israels calculus
What has been the calculus of the government in Tel Aviv? That the USA would step in and aid them after a few days? Maybe they were right then; maybe they weren't. We shall see. Things are escalating.
In the administrative disciplines, we say that there are things we know that we know, and things we know, that we do not know. We then need to decide whether we need to know, should know or do not need to know. Decisions are the fabric of the trade. We need to decide whether to find out, how to get to know, if we need to.
There are things that we do not know that we do not know. At times they will surprise us, when they suddenly and unexpectedly interfere. But there are also things we know, that we do not take properly into consideration when we decide. These are called ‘the unknown knowns;’ things we know, and later find out that we knew, but somehow left out of sight at a crucial point in time.
Israel knew that Iran had missiles that could penetrate their air defences. That became clear in October 2024. They did not know about how many missiles Iran possesses. Not even Pentagon has a precise figure. But they did have a clue.
Therefore the arrival of Khorramshahr, the Iranian modified, North Korean version of NATO classification SS - N - 6, nicknamed ‘The Serb’, may be devastating to those who are struck by it, but that it comes as a surprise to the Israeli Defence Forces, that these missiles exist and that they are in Teherans possession, is not due to incompetence on their part. Somewhere in the administration, something went wrong.