Peace or Frozen Conflict?
The Russian Armed Forces (AFR) grind down of Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) enters its second year. Even the western press is now acknowledging that Kyiv is totally lost. But NATO cannot stop it.
In the Ukraine war, two outcomes are possible:
If Washington can capitulate on behalf of Kyiv, then peace is possible.
If peace is not achieved, then tension will remain and Ukraine will malfunction.
Capitulation
Add 1) Washington accepts the terms of capitulation: Moscow insists that NATO should get out of Ukraine, because they believe that NATO is an existential threat hence will continue fighting, until they have achieved this goal. ‘Demilitarization and denazification’, the two other demands from Kremlin, would mean a revaluation of the strategic architecture on the territory held by Kyiv and eventually around, as well as regime change. This means that Washington must deliver a credible bid for a neutral Ukraine to realize capitulation. I consider this very unlikely due to vanity in Washington. Situation on the ground will thus lead to increased slaughter of Kyiv’s forces.
Open ended conflict
Add 2) Moscow overruns Ukraine to seek security in reference to its grievances. That will eventually lead to AFR attacking Kharkiv and Odessa, or an attack on Kiev to force a settlement with further concessions than the already lost 5 oblasts. Washington, Bruxelles, and a majority of NATO countries will sustain conflict supporting Ukrainian nationalists in Western Ukraine. A ‘frozen conflict’ would mean postponing solutions to the grievances concerning the strategic architecture between Russia and NATO: Arctic, Baltic Sea, Belarus, Kaliningrad, Moldova, and Black Sea are all issues that would remain unsettled and will continue to be contention points between Moscow and the NATO countries. I consider this more likely, since there is no other likely alternative.
In conclusion
There is nothing Washington can do to improve its bargaining position hence no possibility for establishing negotiation; capitulation is only option. Kremlin has no interest in cease fire and does not trust the West. Washington cannot forge capitulation from Kyiv, since it would mean that USA will have to acknowledge defeat. Hence, those interests that have wanted a prolonged conflict with Russia in Europe has won; that is a few thousand plutocrats who have captured Capitol Hill and Kyiv. Everybody else have lost: Russia, Ukraine, USA, EU member states, etc.