The Siege of Pokrovsk X

Pokrovsk seems like another bump on the road, but will soon turn out to present an existential crossroads for EU: Will EU find a way or succumb to this divide and rule strategy by its closest ally.

Fortified towns

The fortifications around Pokrovsk are not very well dug in. Velyka Novosilka, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk were the major forts after Avdiivka. What makes Pokrovsk so significant is that it is the central logistic hub (it works both ways hence will give AFR the advantage that AFU had before operational encirclement) and the fact, that to the West of the town, there are only newly thus weakly fortified positions in Dnipropokrovsk and no structures for digging in further, neither industrial nor natural. After Pokrovsk the challenges facing Kyiv’s forces are insurmountable. Even with troops poring in from the European countries. They will simply be slaughtered by the gigantic and well led Russian forces.

Realities on the ground

There will still be some well fortified towns in the north of Donetsk oblast, but the line of fortifications that has been build and improved since 2014 has been breached. Pokrovsk is virtually surrounded by the drone tentacles spreading out from the established frontline bases, preventing support and rotation of troops; the fact that the Ukrainian army suffers from weak organisation and corruption means that AFR has the upper hand, taking few casualties while progressing in a slow pace. Observers suspect the ratio of fallen is now 2-1 or even 3-1 in Russian favor. Brutal, but simply a result of the ratio in the ability to use lethal weapons on the battlefield under the strategy of slow advancement employed by Moscow. Hopes that Russia will somehow collapse surfaces regularly to keep morals up on the defeated side, but they cannot be substantiated as political stability in Russia is sustained. How NATO could add more pressure is yet un-substantiated; will reports of what actually happens reach The White House?

The Banderite trap

Moscow wants neutrality, demilitarization and denazification. Eventually, the West will have to facilitate these demands. Neutrality can be forged in the image of Austria. Demilitarization will entail that NATO pulls out of Ukraine and AFU will be decimated to manage internal security issues (these are substantial; Ukraine never had a functional police force). How denazification is to be effectuated, though, is unclear. If AFR would need to enter Kyiv, the current regime in Ukraine could operate out of Lviv, and if the West keeps supporting the regime, then the Ukrainian nationalists will be able to keep on firing rockets into Russia. In this perspective, the military strategy of Kyiv is not only turning Ukraine into a rump state with no future, it will also keep the Europeans in the grip of Washington as long as the EU nourishes animosity towards Russia, with or without US support for Kyiv. Can Kyiv change its policy? - Not likely. Yermak and Zelenskyj got rid of Zalushnyj, and replaced him with the politically benign Syrskij, but the Banderites are everywhere in the government, and have become synonymous with anti-Russian Ukrainian ultra-nationalism.

Western delusions

In the West we laugh at the Russian demands, especially the one about denazification, but soon we will have to face up to the facts, and here de-Banderization may become a big issue: The victor sets the demands for surrender, and has earned the opportunity to define what it wants, since it can continue the slaughter at will. If Kyiv finds the need to surrender, (as indicated by the politico-military analysis it should have given up already 14 months ago) then it might need a regime change anyway, simply to have Moscow accepting capitulation. Whether Moscow would accept a capitulation forced upon the current regime in Kyiv by Washington is still uncertain, although the new US administration seems to believe that it can work magic; Donald J. Trump is un-predictable and can be terrifying, but also clumsy and un-appreciative of geography, history, and realities on the ground. What is the threat that can force a settlement?

Is there a way out for EU?

EU is trapped, and that could mean that the conflict may continue even after an agreement is reached due to lack of trust, especially if the resulting dialogue does not appreciate Moscows perception concerning the root causes of conflict. The situation is dire. How did EU end up in this mess? First EU got lured into believing that Moscow was the enemy while NATO sought to build up forces in Ukraine. Now ten years later, Russia has become the enemy. The all engulfing Western propaganda has consumed all reason when it comes to Ukraine. Now EU is stuck with a war in its backyard, that it cannot fight and cannot stop, while the superpower withdraws from the theater, leaving Europe divided and NATO without bite. Washington can call it a win: They will be able to sell weapons and expensive liquid gas for at least another decade to come, and prey on the stagnating economies of the European countries, while Europeans tremble about the prospect of a wider war. But really, it is a major defeat for US global political strategy as Russia and China have entered en entente, directed against what they perceive to be a US exploitative hegemony.

Lack of understanding

It is all an illusion; but there is nothing to dispel its grip on the minds of elites and masses alike. European media has turned its back to Ukraine and the horrors of war these days. After Pokrovsk the writing on the wall will be there for everyone to see. The question is only whether the Europeans dare to face reality. The reasonable thing to do for the Europeans would be to start defining EU foreign policy in accordance with the concrete aims of EU. Without a functional European security architecture, EU will remain under pressure. But instead of implying reason, I expect the Europeans will keep their eyes shut and sustain paralysis, digging themselves deeper into the hole of deindustrialization and parliamentarian crisis, as people begin to realize the disaster. Soon the Germans go to the poles. 13th of february 2025. Then Ukraine will re-emerge as an issue in European politics. Do we dare to hope for a genuine discussion taking the point of departure in the facts on the ground?