The Hawks have it
Kyivs incursion into Kursk has now been contained without any sign of its operational objective; if the strategy was to stir up propaganda in the media, then it has succeeded, but at what cost?
Shock, but no awe
The beginning of August entailed euphoria running through the veins of all who cheer for the Kyiv regime in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Finally, there was some news from the Ukraine war that could spur hope, and strengthen moral, after half a years disillusion. Contrarily, the Russians felt the chill of war, and Moscow has been on its heals, clearly shocked by what is perceived in Russia as a NATO invasion of The Russian Federation. There are a dozen battle hardened elite battalions and in total troops amounting to a handful of brigades involved in invading the region of Kursk. The reaction from Moscow has been slow, but increasingly robust: It is the first time Russia has been attacked since the German invasion in WWII. The Russians appears to have been caught off guard. Still, though, Kremlin act as calm as ever.
A spectacular intermezzo
Moscow perceives The Russian Federation to be a great power hence Kremlin has expressed that there will be no negotiation with Kyiv moving forward after this. In the West, this was celebrated as a sign of weakness; no resolute response, no apparent retaliation from Moscow: Only more empty threats! But now, things are settling and it is time to understand what actually happened to the balance between the parties. Allow this sketch of an analysis investigating Moscows perspective on the incursion and its consequences:
Moscow is no longer open to settling as proposed in june; that is after Kyiv denounces NATO and withdraws from Luhansk, Donnetsk, Zaporizhzha, and Kherson. Obviously, Moscow will now demand Kharkiv and Odessa as well, which will be viewed as security guarantees against future threats from NATO.
Kremlin rests assured that it has the strategic advantage, since Kyiv will not be a member of NATO as long as there is war. This means that Moscow can grind down The Ukrainian Armed Forces until de facto demilitarization, and do so quicker due to the prolonged frontline, stretching and thinning Kyiv’s line of defence even faster.
NATO has lost it ability to stabilize the Donbas frontline section, where The Russian Armed Forces are advancing rapidly towards Pokrovsk; once they get there, Moscows forces have breached the last line of defence, laying the lowlands bare for the strong and capable attacker with no weapons for the defender to stop it.
Washington and its allies are in despair with no strategy and no leadership. Even if the presidential election should produce the possibility for a new policy, it seems that there is nothing Washington can do but threaten Moscow: The promise to give Kyiv all aid available, should Moscow refuse to negotiate, is an empty threat, since Moscow has decided not to negotiate at all, and there are no more weapons to send to Ukraine that could help turn the tide.
The calm judgement
Viewing the Kursk incursion from a distance, listening to the so called military experts and high ranking generals’ assessments on the major news outlets, one must choose between two conclusions: incompetence or ill faith. Whether the dozen elite units would have been able to turn this development around, had they been used for defence in Donbas is very unlikely anyway: This is a war of attrition and the larger power has the advantage in all aspects. It is now a year ago, observers judged ‘The Great Ukrainian Offensive’ a fiasco and started talking about Kyiv should make itself ready to surrender and save what could be saved. In june an opportunity was passed. Since then it has become obvious for more and more people, that it is going only one way, and another PR-stunt has not done anything to alter that evaluation. Contrarily, the anger gathering from the Russians at large to the hardliners in the Kremlin, has made it all but certain, that we are facing the end of Ukraine as we knew it.