The Siege of Pokrovsk VIII

Russian advances are slow but steady west of Selydove. Drone attacks continue further west. Russians is seeking direct fire control of the T0406 and the E50 highway through an attack on Kotlyne.

A cynical tradeoff

The Armed Forces of Ukraine has been on its heals for over a year now. Many soldiers have been lost. Prognosis has forecastet a complete collapse of AFU ability to fight already in 2026. Still Kyiv trades men for propaganda gains, refusing to withdraw thus ending up in encirclement after encirclement for the regime to present the image of an army holding up in the press. And still the West provides the regime with weapons and cash. Now, the conscription age is being lowered to 18 years of age. At least another 150.000 people left in December 2024. The possibility of establishing a country named Ukraine some time in the future is put at stake by the plutocrats in Kyiv and Washington. Incredibly cynical.

The bittercold truth

Much of Ukraine is without power. The winter is bitterly cold. At the front hopes of progress has vanished. At Pokrovsk, the central logistics hub in Donbas, AFU is facing a harsh couple of months as AFR is establishing operational encirclement. Shevchenko and Novotroitske have been taken.

Now, AFR is regrouping and mounting pressure towards the small town of Serhiivka, where there is a modern mine facility to the east, from where physical control of the E50 highway can be established. Around 15th of January, the earth will be frozen, and from then on, it will be impossible for AFU to keep the attackers at bay. Kyiv’s forces are strong and brave, but disillusioned and outnumbered.

Slow advances towards Andriivka

To the east of Khurakove, AFR is operating to establish a pincer around Dachne. Here the AFU has been able to stall AFR advances through Sontsivka thus hindering AFR taking conquering the high grounds to the north of Dachne that are necessary to complete advances from the south. Once the crossings at Kostyantynopil/Andriivka falls, the industrial zone at Khurakove will be cut off from supplies. It is a matter of time. Already this spring, the main arterries of Donbas will be cut, AFU will route, and the eastern Ukraine will lay bare for AFR to roll over during summer, without any natural barriers or constructions around which to build defenses. Such is the current prognosis. Kyiv begs for ‘negotiations’ but are unwilling to consider Moscows demands: neutrality and security guarantees. Capitulation is the only sane option.

In conclusion

AFR is grinding slowly. Moscows demands are still the same. Western government may hope for a miracle, but the situation is hopeless, since AFU has no way to stop AFR, and Kyiv is running out of troops. Kyiv should have given up long ago. Now the idea of Ukraine is being put on the line. No matter what happens in the coming month, the issue of what to do with ‘Ukraine’ will linger on.