Ukraine Revisited IV

While Moscow and Washington seek to establish dialogue, Kyiv is spinning into political chaos. The frontline is penetrated. Bleak prospects for Ukraine.

Talk about peace

All over the media, in East and in West, there is talk about peace and negotiations. Indeed there is a conversation being established in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between representatives from The Kremlin and The White House. On the table in these preliminary positioning, everything is on the table from European security architecture to sanctions on Russia and capitulation from Kyiv. Central is the question whether Washington controls Kyiv; if not, there is not much that can be agreed about the topic of peace in Ukraine. This week there appeared signals that Russia was pulling their forces in different places as a signal, inviting USA to respond in kind by showing that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) can enter the confidence building dance, that can lead to a cease fire. Let us be clear: Kremlin has no use of a cease fire without a peace agreement, and is insisting on rearranging the balance of power between NATO and Moscow concerning Baltic Sea, Kalliningrad, Poland/Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and the Black Sea. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFR) are not going to stop before Kremlin has a serious and comprehensive deal.

Ukrainian Politics in Disarray

Around the Ukrainian president of Zelenskyj there are a lot of skirmishes. The break with Washington seems to be finalized. Observers have noted that MI6 has taken over from CIA securing the personal safety and directing the activities of the Ukrainian president. Yermak’s protegés, the former clown on TV, is beginning to find himself in the crossfire politically as well as physically. With MI6 he appears to be in good hands and managed to complete a trip to United Arab Emirates for depositing large sums of cash, deposits that may be his only means of prolonging his life when the story blows up and his personal security breaks down. When State Department conducted the coup against Diem in 1963, he had been trouble all summer and into the spring. The following military leadership never got the support from the population as anticipated by Kennedy, but a month later he was dead and gone, himself.

The Trump Game

After Zelenskyj insulted the US president Trump quite efficiently yesterday, he appears to be suicidal. Until now, the Ukrainian president has been a bit of a fox, and we see the public discourse among European leaders sharpen in favor of Zelenskyj and his presidency; EU is ramping up its rhetoric, talk about war and military build up. The Trump administration got together as Gabbard (DNI) was cleared by Congress to direct national intelligence; first they played a joker (allowing everyone to discard) and then an ace (forcing everyone to follow suit): this strategy is designed to make the other players reveal their hand, paralyze, and discourage them. Now, we will see whether Washington has more cards to play; Washington will need at least another sting or two to claim their game. This is a L’hombre; not a poker or a rummy. It’s a trump game, and it is being played from the top of the hand. The moment the joker hit the table, all players were in hyper mode.

The Situation on the Ground

For the time being, Moscow holds all the high cards in the game. While dialogue has commenced and Washington has conceded to the Russian demand of no-NATO in Ukraine, Kremlin can simply wait while AFR troops mass into the central Ukraine over summer; it is up to Kyiv to capitulate, since there is a build up to the last battle around the line from Prokrovsk to Konstantinovka, protecting the lowland gate to Central Ukraine. It has been all but over for quite a while, and observers agree that soon the fat lady shall commence the funeral hymn over the Ukraine as a viable political entity:

Conclusion

If Ukraine shall have a chance of survival, it needs a miracle or the like. Politically, they are in tatters and militarily it is even worse. Socially and economically, it is a disaster.