The Siege of Pokrovsk V

The pressure along the frontline increases as AFR unfolds the arms of The Octopus. In Kyiv, the political situation worsens and the fall of the dictator appears imminent. EU in disarray.

The Octopus

For the observer of the conflict in Ukraine it is clear that AFR has found its modus operandi. I call it The Octopus due to the structure of its posture: like an octopus, with the brains at Rostov on Don, AFR floods its body into Donbas, reaching further into Eastern Ukraine with the tentacles; the tactical spearheads of stormtroopers prolonged by drones. When we observe the battlefield, we usually focus on the lines of progression. This is a good way to keep track of events, but in todays warfare the battlefield is characterized by an enormously enhanced vision due to the use of satellites from space and reconnaissance drones, allowing for remote operations behind enemy lines with skirmishers and attack drones carrying munitions to disturb enemy logistics. We may ask: How can AFR continuously attack fortified AFU positions with relatively low levels of casualties? It is a combination of air power, electronic warfare and the weakening of enemy supplies by drone attacks. Looking at the battlefield, it is important to grasp how the tentacles from the octopus seeks out strategic junctures and how the success of these operations destabilizes the supply routes and thus adds to the already substantial level of frustration at amongst the soldiers: Without food and munition the defence is severely hampered.

Western Donetsk

We see an interesting example of this in AFR progression south of Pokrovsk. Combined with the effort on the southern frontline, north of Vuhlidar, we can begin to grasp the dire situation of AFU. AFR moves steadily west of Selidove with a tentacle striking the main arterie, T 0515, supplying western Donetsk. Even if AFU was well equipped with canon barrels, shells and everything, the concrete distribution of these items to the front is severely hampered. Concerning the logistics of Ukraine war, the AFR advantages in the use of electronic warfare gives a decisive edge, since AFR can down a lot of AFU drones while AFU has its radars, anti-air systems and logistics attacked. Usually, we would say that the attacker of fortified positions will need a 5+ to 1 advantage and subsequent willingness to take loses in order to succeed, but close to the body of The Octopus, where the man to man fighting takes place, this ratio is evened out due to technical advantages of AFR. And here we should add, that the better logistics of AFR, allowing for appropriate training, selection and rotation of troops, as well as fast aid to the wounded, means that they are blessed with fewer KIAs and thus constant increase in the amount of experienced storm troopers. That, and the political situation, allowing AFR to attack in its own pace, is in the end decisive for the outcome of this war.

The Situation on the Ground

Rasputitsa has been all but absent until now, but within the coming 14 days, the mud will increase the need for paved supply roads, since earth roads and fields will be off limit for vehicles: More trouble ahead for AFU. Expect the casualty ratio to be staggeringly different from the officials counts and the speculation on the media as Kyiv is mobilizing 19 - 26 year olds, Ukraines last hope of a future. At the moment we see AFR advancing on both sides of the Toretsk stand off. The South Donetsk front is moving forward to physically cut the highway north of Trudove; Kurakhove is pressured maximally to the effect that AFU are withdrawing from the pockets to the north and south of the settlement; and on the northern flank, we see the potential for entrapment of AFU forces with the closure of Kupiansk, leaving a huge contingent of AFU forces trapped with their back to the Oskil river:

AFR is gathering forces in Zaporizhzhia sustaining heavy pressure towards Dnipropetrovsk oblast: AFU collapse is already far in progress. Militarily, the AFR position appears to be ‘a technical win’.

Kyiv Freeze

Kiev seems to be paralyzed and when acting, desperate to appear totally desperate vis a vis its allies, who may finally be forced to remove an increasingly desperate Zelenskyj from the presidency and install a new regime, that can begin to prepare the population for surrender. But as long as the idea looms that Ukraine could become a frontline state in a military alliance directed against Russia, it is unlikely that Moscow will agree to cease fire. Seemingly unaware of the situation on the ground, European leaders in U.K. Scandinavia, Poland, and The Baltics seem hell-bound on continuing the onslaught and cynically sacrifice of Ukrainian men, to retain, as they see it, the authority stemming from sticking to ones narrative. Winter will soon come to Kiev. Facing the possibility of freezing to death in your own home, most people will leave, if they can. Being an observer to the political morass in the vicinity of this conflict craves for a stable stomach.